Gold 2021 Week 39 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Bearish

• Price formed a Bear Engulf (although to me it is more of a consolidation) back in June rejecting MN QHi with no follow-through. Instead price has been trading within the supply (MN-C-S 1768.539) it had formed with last month closing as a DragonFly Doji reacting off MN-D-C 1739.674 (coinciding with MN VWAP in UT TC). To which price is currently trading below testing MN-C-D 1739.674.

Weekly – Bearish

• W1 Bear Engulf with continuation down and last week closed as an Inverted Hammer (long selling wick) trading at W1 QLo

Daily – Bearish

• D1 QHi rejected with no arrival at D1 QLo (yet)
• D1 Three Outside Down with a potential based formed through an Inside Bar

Sentiment summary – Bearish

• MN is trading within last month’s range testing MN demand for a 3rd time coming from a MN QHi rejection
• W1 continuation down with no close within W1-C-D 1729.691 (yet). W1 QLo was rejected but coming from MN QHi, W1 QLo is more probable to get taken out
• D1 is trading mid swing above W1 demand

Additional notes

• Sep 26, 08:00, EUR, Federal Election
• Sep 28, 20:00, EUR, ECB President Lagarde Speech
• Sep 28, 22:00, USD, Fed Chair Powell Testimony

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1-C-S 1807.592
• D1-C-S 1794.187
• MN-C-S 1768.539

ZOIs for Possible Long

• MN-D-C 1739.674
• W1-C-D 1729.691

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, preferably 2 a day (not in the same product at the same time) 
• Weekly Goal
  • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
  • No early exits, either hit SL or 2R target, latest cut-off 1:30 London time
• Risk Management
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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