This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
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Monthly – Bearish
Price formed a Bear Engulf (although to me it is more of a consolidation) back in June rejecting MN QHi with no follow-through. Instead price has been trading within the supply (MN-C-S 1768.539) it had formed with last month closing as a DragonFly Doji reacting off MN-D-C 1739.674 (coinciding with MN VWAP in UT TC). To which price is currently trading below testing MN-C-D 1739.674.
Weekly – Bearish
W1 Bear Engulf with continuation down and last week closed as an Inverted Hammer (long selling wick) trading at W1 QLo
Daily – Bearish
D1 QHi rejected with no arrival at D1 QLo (yet)
D1 Three Outside Down with a potential based formed through an Inside Bar
Sentiment summary – Bearish
MN is trading within last month’s range testing MN demand for a 3rd time coming from a MN QHi rejection
W1 continuation down with no close within W1-C-D 1729.691 (yet). W1 QLo was rejected but coming from MN QHi, W1 QLo is more probable to get taken out
D1 is trading mid swing above W1 demand
Additional notes
Sep 26, 08:00, EUR, Federal Election
Sep 28, 20:00, EUR, ECB President Lagarde Speech
Sep 28, 22:00, USD, Fed Chair Powell Testimony
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
W1-C-S 1807.592
D1-C-S 1794.187
MN-C-S 1768.539
ZOIs for Possible Long
MN-D-C 1739.674
W1-C-D 1729.691
Focus Points for trading development
Monthly Goals
No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, preferably 2 a day (not in the same product at the same time)
Weekly Goal
Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
No early exits, either hit SL or 2R target, latest cut-off 1:30 London time