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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly – Neutral
- MN closed as a RBR with some selling wick reacting off MN Supply and closing below MN QHi
- Price trading below MN-C-S 1965.163 but still within MN QHi
- Price trading within last month’s range after having extended and made a HH
Weekly – Bearish
- W1 Evening Star reacting off W1-C-S 1983.821 rejecting W1 QHi
Daily – Bearish
- D1 Three Outside Up to D1 VWAP
- D1 Bear Engulf closing within new demand giving D1-C-S 1925.568 (possible D1 VWAP CAR) near its low
- D1 QHi rejected and price is trading mid swing
Sentiment summary – Bearish
- MN is still trading within last month’s upper range after seeing reaction off supply
- W1 Evening Star rejecting W1 QHi, although a retracement to newly formed C-sup could negate a bearish thesis.
- D1 Broke down from VWAP and tested it closing down within newly formed demand. Although trading at D1 UKC in UT.
Additional notes
- Blackswan event could throw a wrench into a bearish outlook
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- No early exits, either hit SL or target
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Risk Management
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
