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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly – Bearish
- Price closed lower following a MN hammer closing deeper within MN-C-D 1738.801 (which was tested multiple times and almost got taken out in July / MN Hammer)
- MN QHi rejected, price trading mid swing
- MN VWAP BD to CAR leaving a selling wick and price closed near its low
- Price made a LL taking out MN demand and is nearing MN 50MA in UT
- Conjecture: Price taking out demand indicates a possible continuation as price is coming from a MN QHi rejection and is currently trading mid swing. However, MN 50MA in UT is just below as well MN QLo not far below that coinciding with the round number of 1600 and could see buyers come in.
Weekly – Bearish
- W1 DBD formed taking out demand and giving W1-C-S 1710.087 BASE closing at W1 200MA in UT
- Price closed below previous range low and took out W1 Swing low (now sharing same levels as MN)
- Conjecture: Even though price did close lower it formed a Base Supply level above 200MA in UT (trading at 200MA in UT could see buyers coming in). Which, if price retraces back to it, could see a further push higher to the originating level of W1-C-S 1773.738. However, price closing below previous range low (as well as demand having been taken out) could see a continuation as no reversal is yet printed.
Daily – Bearish
- D1 Bear Engulf at D1 VWAP in DT TC giving D1-C-S 1719.565 with continuation taking out demand
- After demand got popped, Friday made a little retracement in the form of an Inside Bar
- Conjecture: The Inside Bar is more likely just a reaction to the popping of demand as well as profit-taking on Friday and could see a continuation lower. However it is not impossible for price to form a (or just try at least) D1 Three Outside Up (possibly one with a longer selling wick.
Sentiment summary – Bearish
Additional notes
- N.A.
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Use SL scaling
