Gold 2022 Week 38 Trading Plan - Bear Market Trader
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Gold 2022 Week 38 Trading Plan

#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

  • Price closed low­er fol­low­ing a MN ham­mer clos­ing deep­er with­in MN-C‑D 1738.801 (which was test­ed mul­ti­ple times and almost got tak­en out in July / MN Hammer)
  • MN QHi reject­ed, price trad­ing mid swing
  • MN VWAP BD to CAR leav­ing a sell­ing wick and price closed near its low
  • Price made a LL tak­ing out MN demand and is near­ing MN 50MA in UT
  • Con­jec­ture: Price tak­ing out demand indi­cates a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion as price is com­ing from a MN QHi rejec­tion and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing mid swing. How­ev­er, MN 50MA in UT is just below as well MN QLo not far below that coin­cid­ing with the round num­ber of 1600 and could see buy­ers come in.

Week­ly — Bearish

  • W1 DBD formed tak­ing out demand and giv­ing W1-C‑S 1710.087 BASE clos­ing at W1 200MA in UT
  • Price closed below pre­vi­ous range low and took out W1 Swing low (now shar­ing same lev­els as MN)
  • Con­jec­ture: Even though price did close low­er it formed a Base Sup­ply lev­el above 200MA in UT (trad­ing at 200MA in UT could see buy­ers com­ing in). Which, if price retraces back to it, could see a fur­ther push high­er to the orig­i­nat­ing lev­el of W1-C‑S 1773.738. How­ev­er, price clos­ing below pre­vi­ous range low (as well as demand hav­ing been tak­en out) could see a con­tin­u­a­tion as no rever­sal is yet printed. 

Dai­ly — Bearish

  • D1 Bear Engulf at D1 VWAP in DT TC giv­ing D1-C‑S 1719.565 with con­tin­u­a­tion tak­ing out demand
  • After demand got popped, Fri­day made a lit­tle retrace­ment in the form of an Inside Bar
  • Con­jec­ture: The Inside Bar is more like­ly just a reac­tion to the pop­ping of demand as well as prof­it-tak­ing on Fri­day and could see a con­tin­u­a­tion low­er. How­ev­er it is not impos­si­ble for price to form a (or just try at least) D1 Three Out­side Up (pos­si­bly one with a longer sell­ing wick. 

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

Addi­tion­al notes

  • N.A. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Use SL scaling


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