Gold 2022 Week 43 Trading Plan - Bear Market Trader
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Gold 2022 Week 43 Trading Plan

#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

  • Pos­si­ble MN Phase 4
  • Price test­ed MN 50MA in UT and closed leav­ing a buy­ing wick
  • Con­jec­ture: Price failed to close below MN 50MA in UT but did close below pre­vi­ous range low. As there is no rever­sal yet and MN QLo as well as the 1600 right below price could see a con­tin­u­a­tion and test these levels. 
  • How­ev­er, price trad­ing at MN 50MA in UT could see buy­ers com­ing in although no rever­sal has print­ed yet.
  • Price start­ed react­ing off MN 50MA in UT but is cur­rent­ly trad­ing below body although still with­in range

Week­ly — Bearish

  • Price test­ed a W1 Base Demand Lev­el saw some reac­tion but failed to pull through
  • Instead it formed a W1 Bear Engulf giv­ing W1-C‑S 1664.493 Low in Dist. Curve
  • Price test­ed new­ly formed W1 Sup­ply, made a LL almost tak­ing out W1 Demand End but closed as an Inside Bar
  • Price has not test­ed MN/W1 QLo yet
  • Con­jec­ture: Price came close to tak­ing out W1 Demand but start­ed react­ing but then failed to close with­in new­ly formed Supply.
  • Price hav­ing reached a W1 Base Demand lev­el sug­gests a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to orig­i­nat­ing lev­el of 1546.360 (although still far off, with lots of con­ges­tion in the way).
  • Price could pop demand, test MN/W1 QLo with round num­ber of 1600 below before revers­ing the bear­ish sentiment

Dai­ly — Bullish

  • Price start­ed react­ing at W1/D1 demand and trad­ed high­er clos­ing above D1 QLo
  • Price trad­ing below D1 VWAP/LKC in DT
  • Con­jec­ture: Even though price closed quite bull­ish as a Marubozu can­dle above D1 QLo it is still not in the clear with D1 Sup­ply, VWAP right above. If price starts to wane on momen­tum it could negate the bull­ish thesis.

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

Addi­tion­al notes

  • N.A. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Use SL scaling


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