Gold 2022 Week 50 Trading Plan - Bear Market Trader
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Gold 2022 Week 50 Trading Plan

#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow #Trad­ing­Plan

This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, get in touch with me. 

Month­ly — Bullish

  • MN Bull Engulf at MN 50MA in UT giv­ing MN-C‑D 1664.995 just above MN QLo (no touch)
  • Price cur­rent­ly trad­ing above body, out­side range, test­ing MN VWAP
  • Con­jec­ture: After a for­ma­tion of a Bull Engulf there might be a retrace­ment to new­ly formed MN demand (2nd Chance entry move)
  • MN VWAP could turn into a CAR as price did ini­tial­ly close below pre­vi­ous range low and failed to test MN QLo
  • Price closed back with­in over­all range and could see the over­all range stay intact for now

Week­ly — Bullish

  • W1 Sup­ply got tak­en out as price made a HH clos­ing as a Inside Bar with Longer buy­ing wick / Hammer
  • Price trad­ing below W1 QHi, at W1 50MA
  • Con­jec­ture: Price closed as a pos­si­ble Base and could see a (pos­si­bly exhaus­tive) push high­er with­in Wide W1 QHi.
  • W1 QHi as well as W1 50MA could see sell­ers com­ing in

Dai­ly — Bullish

  • D1-C‑D 1770.923 Momen­tum held and closed high­er above D1 200MA test­ing Round No. 1800 although leav­ing a longer sell­ing wick fail­ing to close with­in D1-C‑S 1798.779
  • Con­jec­ture: Price closed high­er although failed to close with­in D1 Sup­ply leav­ing a sell­ing wick and could see sell­ers com­ing in. Same thing for trad­ing at D1 200MA although price returned to it as well as Round No. of 1800.
  • Clos­ing as a Ham­mer with wider body could see a con­tin­u­a­tion higher

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bullish

Addi­tion­al notes

  • N.A. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals 
    • Use SL scaling
    • 1st DTTZ Gold
    • 2nd DTTZ DAX


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

  • juan l.
    Posted at 13:29h, 12 December

    Good Evening T3ch sir,

    Thanks for your respons­es last week. Im so glad i can speak to a trad­er in real-time and see your thought process. I don’t intend to copy you but take from your thought process­es and Mar­ket Stalk­er method­ol­o­gy to form my own style. With that being said here are my questions/concerns.
    1. what do you mean by “Price cur­rent­ly trad­ing above body, out­side range” on the Month­ly TF?
    2. How sig­nif­i­cant is it the fact that the Month­ly Qlo was not touched ?
    3. Does the Width of a High/Mid/Lo TF Q point indi­cate the prob­a­bil­i­ty of it being test­ed or accepted ?
    4. On the Week­ly TF the sup­ply was tak­en out by a Bull­ish engulf­ing but it met resis­tance. is it safe to con­clude that the sup­ply being tak­en out with momen­tum gives the stronger prob­a­bil­i­ty of accep­tance into the Qhi ? Per­son­al­ly my bias right now is no bias. that bear­ish can­dle from last week makes me want to wait for this weeks can­dle to see if there is any addi­tion­al momen­tum left behind the move. Do you agree/disagree ?
    5. what is the Dot­ted red line ?
    6. On the Dai­ly. Price has test­ed and closed below a C‑D. Do you still want to see accep­tance of the W/D Qhi and a Rejec­tion can­dle pat­tern for your bias to flip Bearish ?

    Broil my brain please

  • juan l.
    Posted at 13:44h, 12 December

    Here’s an inter­est­ing point. Week­ly demand was NOT tak­en out on Gold futures. Will this affect your analy­sis ? or will you just stick with data from spot Gold ?

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 07:24h, 13 December

    Hi Juan, my plea­sure. You ask good ques­tions so keep ’em coming.
    1. The can­dle has a body and a wick. The wick rep­re­sents the range. Either sell­ing or buy­ing range. So I look where the devel­op­ing price is in rela­tion to that. You have to place it with­in con­text though. Mean­ing with all the oth­er TF as well as the cycle of the devel­op­ing can­dle ie. begin­ning, mid­dle, end of the month/W1. This is my own sauce that I pour over my TA and I do not sug­gest you to incor­po­rate it into your own edu­ca­tion as you should first learn the MS method. And like you said come up with your own approach. I’ll be more than will­ing to expand fur­ther on this in the future though.
    2. That could mean 2 things. Price is going to go back and test it. OR. Price found so much momen­tum before that lev­el that it reversed. In terms of sig­nif­i­cance I’d say it on its own isn’t that sig­nif­i­cant. When you put it in per­spec­tive with the W1 and D1 time­frame you can get a bet­ter pic­ture of what’s going on. We trade what’s in front of us the rest us up to the gods ie insti­t­u­a­tion traders 🙂
    3. If you are refer­ring to the width of the swing High/Low yes it does. If the Swing High/Low is nar­row it is more prob­a­ble (not guar­an­teed, because you always need to place it with­in con­text of the over­all mar­ket) that price could test and reverse than it is with a wide swing high/low. If it’s wide it could rather see a con­tin­u­a­tion OR at least a deep­er ‘pen­e­tra­tion’ before start­ing to react.
    4. I agree that we need more infor­ma­tion.. So with the pre­ced­ing ral­ly to then form a pos­si­ble base could sug­gest anoth­er ral­ly com­ing up form­ing a RBR. Wide W1 QHi could fur­ther sug­gest a pos­si­bil­i­ty for a deep­er pen­e­tra­tion as I sug­gest­ed before. The fact that W1 sup­ply got tak­en out usu­al­ly sees some reac­tion before there is a con­tin­u­a­tion. How­ev­er, some­times these areas get popped to find liq­uid­i­ty to then reverse in the oppo­site direc­tion. Which in thise case could form a W1 Three Out­side Down for­ma­tion. So just look­ing at the W1 yes more info is need­ed although with a slight nod to bull­ish as also no rever­sal has print­ed yet. We always need price to con­firm before we shift bias. MN is ear­ly in its devel­op­ment and even though it made a HH as opposed to the pre­vi­ous month it was a large move (as well as trad­ing at MN VWAP) and could see a retrace­ment caus­ing a short­er term rever­sal on W1. So yes. More infor­ma­tion is needed.
    5. I believe you are refer­ring to the RED “striped dot­ted” line’ these are the 200MA for their respec­tive TFs.
    6. No, when price fails to close WITHIN a Supply/demand zone it usu­al­ly means there aren’t enough par­tic­i­pants around to push the price deep­er hence the oppo­si­tion could take over. With the pow­er of hind­sight at the moment we can see that that is exact­ly what hap­pend. The rea­son why I had not flipped it to bear­ish is that price action had not yet formed a rever­sal. Hence, the con­jec­ture around the lev­el. That I then lat­er will take with as a piece of infor­ma­tion putting it with­in the con­texst of LTF as well as open sen­ti­ment to form a bet­ter undertanding.
    7. No, I do not look at any oth­er chart but the charts per­tain­ing to the instru­ment I am trad­ing. So yes I just stick with the data of my own chart. Every­thing else to me is irrel­e­vant. Hav­ing said that when equi­ties and gold seems to be mov­ing in tan­dem I take note of that but often the oppo­site is the case.
    Brain boiled?

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 08:58h, 13 December

    Addi­tion to num­ber 1: A fur­ther impli­ca­tion of trad­ing with­in a range is that there are still buyers/sellers around that could push prices. So going long into a sell­ing wick (upper range) is more like­ly to encounter some con­ges­tion than not. This is just anoth­er piece of infor­ma­tion that you can take into your TA. How this infor­ma­tion trans­lates into the MTF/LTF is some­thing that you can see through price action read­ing and of course experience.

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