13 Feb Gold Week 7 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on GOLD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Slightly Bearish
- MN-C‑D 1876.079 formed through Bull Engulf in December with no follow-through. Instead a test and reaction off MN-C‑S 1965.605 (2nd test, first in November). Month of January closing down within MN demand although not retracing more than 50% with price currently trading lower although still 3 weeks to go into the candle close.
- Possible Phase 3
Weekly — Slightly Bearish to Neutral
- 3rd test of W1 50MA with a squeeze forming between W1 50MA and W1 VWAP
- Last week retraced and tested newly formed W1-C‑S 1847.890 (2nd chance) and closed as an Inside Bar with longer selling wick reacting off W1 QLo. Would need another week to complete a bearish or bullish formation.
Daily — Slightly Bearish
- D1 Bear Engulf giving D1-C‑S 1836.153 with some follow-through closing as a hammer with long buying wick reacting off W1/D1 QLo and D1-C‑D 1814.024
H4 — Neutral
- Some reaction off H4 QLo turned into a consolidation
Sentiment summary — Neutral
- Due to multiple tests of underlying W1 demand as well as W1 50MA (combined with inability to close above W1 VWAP) I am slightly more bearish. However, due to price having trouble to close below aforementioned levels I am still waiting for a better long term directional clue. With price adhering to the W1 range we can still trade off these levels intraday. If 1764.835 gets taken out we could see such long term bearish sentiment. The contrary would be the case if we take out 1876.079 although we would be met with more supply overhead.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 1889.101
- D1-C‑S 1855.752
- W1-C‑S 1847.890
- D1-C‑S 1836.153
ZOIs for Possible Long
- MN-C‑D 1876.079
- W1-C‑D 1839.109
- D1-C‑D 1814.024
- D1-C‑D 1787.150
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING