Gold XAUUSD – Week 29 Trading Plan

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This is my weekly outlook on Gold (XAUUSD). Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Bullish

• Price above last month’s bar but in the middle of retracing developing bar (still have 3 weeks in the month left) after making a HH exceeding October 2012’s high
• Price still within MN supply and within MN1/ Q1 QHi

Weekly – Bullish

• New Demand formed at MN1 QHi with conterminous W1-C-D 1729.488
• Price extending higher with no supply overhead until that of last September 2011 with conterminous W1-C-S 1855.184
• Price still above UKC and VWAP

Daily – Slightly Bearish

• New Daily demand formed with D1-C-D 1764.081
• Supply formed with D1-C-S 1803.298 through inside bar and consequent push slightly lower
• Price above VWAP and UKC

H4 – Neutral

• Supply formed with H4-C-S 1808.468 with a move away to previous H4-C-D 1794.574
• Followed by a big bull engulf testing the supply (and H4 QHi) with consequent push back down
•  Underlying demand has been tested 3 times now

Market Profile – Neutral

• Profile started bracketing

Sentiment summary – Neutral to Slightly Bullish

• Larger time frames still very much bullish due to previous supply ZOIs being taken out however medium time frames indicating a possible shift in distribution or perhaps a redistribution. Need more confirmation on profile before increasing sentiment on a general direction.

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1-C-S 1855.184
• H4-C-S 1808.468
• D1-C-S 1803.298

ZOIs for Possible Long

• H4-C-D 1794.574
• D1-C-D 1764.081
• W1-C-D 1729.488
• D1-C-D 1727.231

Focus Points for trading development

• Weekly Goal
  • Correct position sizing
  • Trades priority: 1) let market profile guide 2) M30 confirmation (watch out for ‘Billy No Mates’)
• Risk Management
  • Only take 2 trades a day but only have 1 active trade on between the assets
  • Only trade off M30 candles
  • Trading Priority
    • FX pair outside value
    • FX pair inside > Gold
    • 2+R profit during LN consider trading PNYC
  • After 4 losing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can consider taking profits
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING