How did I trade today? 02102021

10 Feb How did I trade today? 02102021

Sum­ma­ry: Hypoth­e­size, visu­al­ize, act.

Account (P&L): FLAT

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless mul­ti­ple con­di­tions are met

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Closed as a move high­er fol­lowed by a doji. Even if there is a momen­tum move dur­ing C I will see if there is a sus­tained auc­tion dur­ing D in case I can get a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. Going in on a momen­tum trade at this trad­ing loca­tion I find risky. Per­haps an entry long on retest of IB edge. A con would be a sell­ing tail and price action rever­sal although the move seems it might sustain.
  • C: closed extend­ing above in a sus­tained move through RBR. 
  • D: Retest of IB high nev­er came. Instead made HHs, exhaust­ing ADR, pos­si­ble oppor­tu­ni­ty late-sus­tained auc­tion entry off of TPO struc­ture buildup low. 
  • E: Made HHs, W1 sup­ply still intact, closed as an inside bar with a short sell­ing wick, M15 Evening Star (on the hour), no TPO struc­ture buildup (yet)
  • Closed as a Three Out­side Down (H1 Inside bar, M15 DBD) although not much TPO struc­ture build up (yet) and trad­ing above devel­op­ing val­ue high
  • G: Cur­rent­ly test­ing TPO struc­ture low (coin­cid­ing with DPOC) pos­si­ble tak­ing out sin­gle prints in D how­ev­er some struc­ture left with over­lap in C. Also ‘accept­ed’ devel­op­ing val­ue area. 
    • Mon­i­tor­ing for a late-sus­tained auc­tion TPO edge entry play
      • PT1 entry long 1.91721 SL 1.91571 TP (2R) 1.92021
    • Closed form­ing a spin­ning top with longer buy­ing wick
  • H: Closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion (at DPOC). Still sin­gle prints left in C. The ‘late-sus­tained auc­tion TPO edge entry play’ did not hap­pen. I will mon­i­tor a bit longer. Although this should have hap­pened faster as to adhere to the momen­tum in the move. 
  • I: Closed as Bull Engulf, no HH
  • J: There seems to be some fol­low-through on the move after all. Closed as doji. No fol­low-through on the bull engulf. 

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: Closed as a rota­tion through val­ue fol­lowed by a bull­ish inside bar not clos­ing above val­ue. Same for Gold: Even if there is a momen­tum move dur­ing C I will see if there is a sus­tained auc­tion dur­ing D in case I can get a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. Going in on a momen­tum trade at this trad­ing loca­tion I find risky.
  • C: Closed as a consolidation 
  • D: Test­ed VAL, D closed below VAL at H4-C‑D 1839.490
  • E: Closed as bull­ish Inside bar after react­ing off H4 C‑dem clos­ing back into IB and Val­ue fail­ing auction.
  • F: Closed as an Inside bar with longer sell­ing wick with­in IB
  • G: Closed trad­ed low­er test­ing the low of the exten­sion down and left a long buy­ing wick behind. 
  • H: Trad­ed low­er with a long sell­ing wick
  • I: Trad­ed low­er, no LL
  • J: Made LLs before launch­ing upo in K 🙂

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 ral­ly look­ing bull­ish although some­what slow­ing down. W1 hav­ing retraced pre­vi­ous bear engulf with very long buy­ing wick indi­cat­ing more buy­ers are still present. 
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish price action with momen­tum IB exten­sion up fol­lowed by a sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out supply.
  • Con: due to the wide nature of the sup­ply we could see a lot of push back and thus a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • 90%
  • There was indeed a momen­tum move up that exhaust­ed ADR. Fol­lowed by no move high­er. Instead we had a pull­back fol­lowed by a con­sol­i­da­tion dur­ing the ses­sion. Move might come lat­er. Will check in on this. 

Hypos — GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 QHi, D1 slight­ly high­er, W1 C‑sup retest
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action with VAA and quick rota­tion, break below val­ue and hold­ing. Even­tu­al­ly tak­ing out H4 demand
  • 90%
  • As hypoth­e­sized although no demand was tak­en out. Instead there was a rever­sal at H4 C‑dem (and ADR 0.5 low) lev­el with a close with­in IB and then some mean­der­ing low­er not mak­ing LLs.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I did well here. I made a deci­sion to not trade on the momen­tum move in GBPNZD and I feel that was the right move. I visu­al­ized a pos­si­ble IB edge high retest for a pos­si­ble late-sus­tained entry which didn’t come there­fore I stayed out. Lat­er on I had the oppor­tu­ni­ty to for­ward test a play I’ve seen mul­ti­ple times where a sus­tained auc­tion cre­ates a TPO struc­ture, then tests that struc­ture low before it con­tin­ues high­er. Although on more momen­tum. Today things real­ly slowed down and I deduced price fail­ing to play off the premise although we did cre­ate a Bull Engulf in TPO I.
• Gold I did well too although due to con­flict­ing nar­ra­tives I just decid­ed to let it go and observe. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I did well here

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Trade selec­tion
  • GBPNZD: No trade tak­en although for­ward test­ed a play I’ve been work­ing on. 
  • Gold: No trade taken
• Entry Method
  • GBPNZD: Entry would have been a M15 bull engulf at DPOC that after a 2 TPO con­sol­i­da­tion tran­si­tioned into a M30 Bull Engulf break high­er dur­ing I and is try­ing to fol­low up dur­ing J but unsuc­cess­ful. As hypoth­e­sized with price slow­ing down and more TPO struc­ture build there was a less­er like­li­hood of a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. 
  • Gold: No trade taken
• Trade Siz­ing & SL placement
  • GBPNZD: SL place­ment would have been only 15 pips and as we speak has reached 1R
  • Gold: No trade taken
• Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt
  • GBPNZD: Time-based stop at would have been a minor 0.1–0.2R 0.8R at the end Over­lap noise cut off. 
  • Gold: No trade taken

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here to stay objec­tive and not let FOMO take over. Instead I visu­al­ized what I would like to see and stayed objec­tive. Wait­ing for it to play out but it did­n’t meet my entry cri­te­ria so I let it go. 

What did I learn today?

• I learned that even though there is some valid­i­ty to my late-sus­tained auc­tion TPO edge entry play (real­ly got­ta get a short­er term for it) I need more data on for­ward test­ing this. But it is def­i­nite­ly bear­ing some fruits I’d say. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Hypoth­e­size, visu­al­ize, act. If visu­al­iza­tion doesn’t match hypoth­e­sis and con­firm through price action there is sim­ply no trade. The play then turns into gath­er­ing data on how to per­haps bet­ter catch it next time (if any!).

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Wor­ry about going faster. Less haste, more speed as Dee says. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 02102021

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 02102021

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