14 May How did I trade today? 20210514
Summary: Stalk. Visualize. Execute. Otherwise it is chasing the market.
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
Good Pre-market routines
Bad Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1
- 1st DTTZ
- C formed a Three Outside Down extending below IB as per hypo 1
- Missed the entry due to just returning to my desk after receiving a package which made me hesitate. Then due to trading within H4 demand I though by popping of said demand there could be a pullback to IB low for a late-sustained auction entry but the initiative activity seems to be high and kept trading lower.
- E closed as a Hammer (reacting off H4 UKC in UT after a possible H4 VWAP in UT BD), then F pulled back to structure high (before taking out single prints in C) and then closed as an inverted Hammer. Forward-testing another late-sustained auction premise on medium/high initiative activity days.
- 2nd DTTZ
- G closed down as anticipated in a late-sustained auction entry move based off TPO structure.
- 1st DTTZ
Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Narrative: Open sentiment, IB traded off LTF supply within range, D1 Inside Bar closing below D1 QHi, mixed trend and D1 UKC in R
- Preferred: Strong Bearish PA, IB extension down with sustained auction taking out H4 demand, otherwise a failed auction after a test of value edge (for a test of D1 QHi after rejection)
- Con: Some demand created at H4 VWAP in UT
- 100% correct
How accurate was my assessment of market context? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
With a moderate to large imbalance there was some strength behind the move when C TPO extended below IB and closed as a Three Outside Down. Made LLs through E before closing as a Hammer and F pulling back to TP structure high and closing as a Inverted Hammer. This Hammer/Inverted Hammer combo I have seen before. G then closed as another drop although not making a LL (yet).
What was the play of the day?
Return to Value
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
It was Hypo 1 that played out
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
There was an opportunity but I missed it. Kinda. I was preoccupied taking a delivery and when I came back to my desk the move was happening. I decided that I did not want to take a trade that I wasn’t stalking (even though I hypothesized the play) and decided to wait for another late-sustained auction entry. I deduced there was a chance for it if H4 demand got popped price could see some pullback to IB low. This did not happen due to the medium/high initiative activity day. This made me switch to a forward testing mode where I have seen similar circumstances where a TPO structure ‘edge’ to the opposing side can be used as a late-sustained auction entry’ with the direction of the move. More on this later in a separate post.
What could I have done better?
I did well because I did not chase the market even though it would have panned out. My rule is I have to be stalking a trade, visualizing what could happen within the framework of what I would like to see develop. Then execute if that comes to fruition.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trades taken
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I did well for the most part but I am not sure what’s going on with this dip I am feeling in the afternoon… I’ll investigate further on this.
What did I learn today?
That I don’t chase the market. I think this is partly out of fear but I think this is a good fear. I need to be on point doing what I do before taking a trade. Not ‘stumble onto’ a potential trade and then act. I believe the latter will interfere with my progress as a day trader.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Keep following my process. Process is king.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
I did well today. I forward-tested a trading idea. Great work.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
Yes I did.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: