How did I trade today? 20210520

Sum­ma­ry: Trust your abil­i­ties as well as your judgement

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • B closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar. C closed as a Doji, D shot up extend­ing over IB test­ing val­ue before clos­ing below. M15 formed a doji which could go either way. E closed as a sus­tained auc­tion at val­ue edge. Not con­vinc­ing­ly clos­ing within. 
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • There was indeed a sus­tained auc­tion high­er and there is no rever­sal on the hori­zon (yet).
    • G closed as a Grave­stone Doji and I con­sid­ered going short fad­ing the auc­tion. But with val­ue being accept­ed and a Poor High I decid­ed against it. 

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GBPNZD

Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?

• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 rally
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: W1 supply
  • 70% cor­rect
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment with reac­tion off W1 sup­ply and H4 trad­ing lower. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA after poten­tial­ly test­ing VAL before extend­ing down with a sus­tained auc­tion. Per­haps a failed auc­tion. Mon­i­tor for a poten­tial to hit D1 base demand for fur­ther continuation. 
  • Con: LTF demands in the way as well as H4 VWAP in UT
  • 70% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance

Price was trad­ing mid M30 swing so I was think­ing that it would not be a great place to go short. Then IB extend­ed up dur­ing D not accept­ing val­ue yet. Then E closed very slight­ly with­in val­ue. With W1 sup­ply above at PPOC I did not want to go long. Price did extend high­er before revers­ing at W1 supply. 

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price formed a Grave­stone Doji dur­ing G so I was look­ing for M5/M15 com­bi­na­tions to go short. Then I hes­i­tat­ed a bit due to val­ue hav­ing been accept­ed but also because M15 did not entire­ly close bear­ish. Even so was fol­lowed by a Bull Engulf so I let the trade go. Trade would have yield­ed 0.3R at trad­ing win­dow close.

What was the play of the day?

A Val­ue Accep­tance to Return to Val­ue although the lat­ter in my opin­ion was the actu­al play. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was right on the out­come although Hypo 2 played out some­what before Hypo 1

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

With price trad­ing below val­ue and some­what near val­ue edge I did not want to trade right into it before accept­ing. Then the accep­tance was quite flim­sy and I decid­ed to wait for the poten­tial rever­sal at W1 sup­ply. This came but not too con­vinc­ing­ly so I let the trade go. Will doc­u­ment more in my upcom­ing post on the missed trade(s)

What could I have done better?

I believe I did well on the first one. Not too bad on the sec­ond ‘oppor­tu­ni­ty’ as there was no clear-cut entry sig­nal. I do have to force myself to be a bit bold­er when it comes to tak­ing some buffer trades. I will work on this through doing what I do now. That sounds fun­ny because my goal was to at least take one trade today but I did not take any. I feel I have valid rea­sons for this so let’s see how tomor­row goes. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did fair­ly well here even though I was feel­ing a bit let­down not tak­ing an oppor­tu­ni­ty. Even though I have to force myself to take trades with sub­par prof­it tar­gets I feel I did well today. 

What did I learn today?

I learned that most of the time I am right in my assess­ment and thus I can take ‘buffer trades’ where I cap­i­tal­ize on a small move for a 0.5–0.8R but tar­get­ing 1R. I will work on this and will give myself till the end of the month to prove I can take these. It’s just a slight mind­set change as I nor­mal­ly loved jump­ing in and out of trades where­as now I ‘trained’ myself to wait for bet­ter oppor­tu­ni­ties. I need to find the bal­ance between the two so this will be my main goal going forward. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Focus on obtain­ing a trade per DTTZ. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about the out­come. My skills are there. Now I just need to show the results. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did okay today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210520

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210520

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