Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210520

20 May Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210520

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 20 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price arrived at W1 and MN sup­ply with a slight reac­tion mak­ing a HH over last week’s range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 RBR giv­ing D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE tak­ing out sup­ply arriv­ing at W1 sup­ply clos­ing slight within
  • H4 Bear Engulf (but with long buy­ing wick) and slight con­tin­u­a­tion down tak­ing out demand
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the over­all range with cur­rent­ly price trad­ing below yesterday’s value
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1235
  • ASR: 938
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97277
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95809

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1.96840 with­in val­ue at PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed down mak­ing a LL
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price opened below val­ue, with­in range. H4 trad­ing down from W1 sup­ply there could be some fol­low-through to the move down. Although Asia trad­ed down this could poten­tial­ly be negat­ed since yes­ter­day trad­ed uni­di­rec­tion­al­ly up. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment with reac­tion off W1 sup­ply and H4 trad­ing lower. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA after poten­tial­ly test­ing VAL before extend­ing down with a sus­tained auc­tion. Pre­haps a failed auc­tion. Mon­i­tor for a poten­tial to hit D1 base demand for fur­ther continuation. 
  • Con: LTF demands in the way as well as H4 VWAP in UT
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 rally
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: W1 supply
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: poten­tial fail­ure to break below H4 QHi and devel­op­ing H4 Hammer

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97330
• W1-C‑S 1.96840

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram