Lexicon

• KC = Kelt­ner Channels
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• VWAP = Vol­ume-Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• 50MA/200MA = 50/200-peri­od Mov­ing Average
• DBD = Drop Base Drop
• RBR = Ral­ly Base Rally
• RBD = Ral­ly Base Drop
• DBR = Drop Base Rally
• NSF = Nor­mal Sup­ply Formation
• NDF = Nor­mal Demand Formation
• Phase 1 = Accumulation
• Phase 2 = Mark-Up
• Phase 3 = Distribution
• Phase 4 = Mark-Down
• MN = Month­ly Chart
• W1 = Week­ly Chart
• D1 = Dai­ly Chart
• H4 = 4 Hour Chart
• H1 = 1 Hour Chart
• M30 = 30 Minute Chart
• M15 = 15 Minute Chart
• M5 = 5 Minute Chart
• TF = Time Frame
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame (any­thing below H4)
• MTF = Medi­um Time Frame (H4, D1)
• HTF = High­er Time Frame (W1, MN)
• UT = Uptrend
• DT = Down­trend
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• IB = Ini­tial Balance
• IBR = Ini­tial Bal­ance Range
• IB Low = IBR Low­er Edge
• IB High = IBR High­er Edge
• Sus­tained Auc­tion = A sus­tained move in the direc­tion of the exten­sion of IB
• Failed Auc­tion = Fail­ure to find busi­ness out­side of IBR thus returning
• R = Range
• PA = Price Action
• DTTZ = Day Trad­ing Time Zone
• C = Con­ter­mi­nous line or Supply/Demand line
  • Exam­ple: D1-C‑D 1.9xxxx means a Dai­ly time­frame supply/demand line has been formed at 1.9xxxx

Market Narratives

This is a rudi­men­ta­ry expla­na­tion of how I view mar­ket nar­ra­tives. I don’t use these as end all be all expla­na­tions of what SHOULD hap­pen. Instead I use them as odds enhancers com­bined with Sup­ply and Demand zones as well as the (im)balance at the open. This helps me form hypothe­ses that help me guide my trad­ing deci­sions dur­ing the trad­ing ses­sion. Then I use price action and order flow read­ing through mar­ket pro­file to gauge intra­day sen­ti­ment. This helps me to either align myself with a poten­tial mar­ket nar­ra­tive or dis­qual­i­fy the thesis. 

The VWAP is interchangeable with other averages like a 50 or 200-period (simple) moving average or Lower/Upper Keltner Channel 

• TF VWAP (in UT/DT) TC
  • Time­frame VWAP Trend Continuation
    • When in a trend price often tests VWAP before continuing
• TF VWAP in DT BO
  • Time­frame VWAP in Down­trend Break out
    • Price breaks out from VWAP after a down­trend. As such the sen­ti­ment shifts to favor longs until a crit­i­cal oppos­ing lev­el has been hit. 
• TF VWAP in DT BO to CAS
  • Time­frame VWAP in Down­trend Break out to Con­firm as Support
    • After the break out price ‘usu­al­ly’ goes back to test the break out lev­el (in this case VWAP). As such the sen­ti­ment shifts to favor shorts.
• TF VWAP in DT CAS
  • Time­frame VWAP in Down­trend Con­firmed As Support
    • After test­ing that Break Out lev­el and price con­firms a rever­sal at said lev­el, now that lev­el is Con­firmed As Sup­port. As such the sen­ti­ment shifts to favor longs.
• TF VWAP in UT BD
  • Time­frame VWAP in Uptrend Break Down
    • Price breaks down from VWAP after an Uptrend. As such the sen­ti­ment shifts to favor shorts until a crit­i­cal oppos­ing lev­el has been hit. 
• TF VWAP in UT BD to CAR
  • Time­frame VWAP in Uptrend Break Down to Con­firm as Resistance
    • After the break down price ‘usu­al­ly’ goes back to test the break down lev­el (in this case VWAP). As such the sen­ti­ment shifts to favor longs.
• TF VWAP in DT CAR
  • Time­frame VWAP in Uptrend Con­firmed As Resistance
    • After test­ing that Break Down lev­el and price con­firms a rever­sal at said lev­el, now that lev­el is Con­firmed As Resis­tance. As such the sen­ti­ment shifts to favor shorts.
• TF UKC/LKC in UT/DT CAS/CAR
  • Time­frame Upper/Lower Kelt­ner Chan­nel in Up- Down­trend Con­firm as Support/Resistance