Missed Trade GBPNZD 20210419 - Bear Market Trader
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Missed Trade GBPNZD 20210419

Missed Trade GBPNZD 20210419

Play: Mean Rever­sion to Return to Val­ue play

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

Rea­son for miss­ing the trade

I was not feel­ing my best due to lack of sleep. So I decid­ed to stay out and just observe. Too bad since this would have been a home-run day. 

What would have been the Entry?

Large Imbal­ance at the open, 1.2xASR above val­ue, out­side range coin­cid­ing with a M30 VWAP in UT BD and pos­si­ble H4 DBD in the making. 

Then when the move trad­ed down to D1 demand, near H4 QLo it reversed leav­ing only an okay buy­ing tail on the pro­file. Rever­sal came through M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar, M15 Bull Engulf. The pro­file start­ed fad­ing the auc­tion back up to IB edge low and even­tu­al­ly closed with­in fail­ing the auction

Trade 1


Entry Method: IB extension

Trade 2

DTTZ: 2nd DTTZ although a bit ear­ly as rever­sal start­ed in E

Entry Method: M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar, M15 Bull Engulf

Tags: Large Imbal­ance, above val­ue, out­side range, M30 VWAP in UT BD, H4 DBD, IB exten­sion entry, M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar, M15 Bull Engulf, auc­tion fade, failed auc­tion, D1 2nd chance entry

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1

SL place­ment: Due to the momen­tum nature of the IB exten­sion entry SL place­ment can be sub­op­ti­mal. So it was okay.

Trade 2

SL place­ment: The SL place­ment was slight­ly below the price action for­ma­tion so that is good plus it was locat­ed at x.xx82 with entry aroun x.xx07

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1

Con­ges­tion: There was a D1 demand at 1.8R

Prof­it tar­get: Val­ue Edge would have been 3.2R

Trade 2

Con­ges­tion: None

Prof­it tar­get: IB Edge Low would have made for 1.3R

Click to Enlarge

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: So my stan­dard 2R prof­it tar­get would have been hit if I had cho­sen to wait for an actu­al rever­sal pat­tern the trade would have net­ted 1.3R.

Trade 2

Exit: Since there was no price action rever­sal a time-based exit would have net­ted 1.4R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: ‑0.2R

Trade 2

Exit: 1.4R

Extra Obser­va­tions

Return to Val­ue play (after a mean rever­sion down) formed a H4 DBD with long buy­ing wick. The return to val­ue play was a D1 2nd chance entry. 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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