Missed Trade Gold 20210423 - Bear Market Trader
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Missed Trade Gold 20210423

Missed Trade Gold 20210423

Play: Val­ue Rejec­tion Fail­ure / Bal­anc­ing Market

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GOLD #XAUUSD #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

Rea­son for miss­ing the trade

I wasn’t pay­ing atten­tion as I was more focused on GBPNZD. 

What would have been the Entry?

The mar­ket opened with­in val­ue and there­fore there was a high­er like­li­hood for a failed val­ue rejec­tion and thus play­ing off near­by LTF SD and or ADR 0.5 / exhaus­tion lev­els is a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty play. This day it hap­pened to coin­cide with the trend (as it was UP) and also in line with a H4 VWAP in UT TC. 

Price con­sol­i­dat­ed pre­mar­ket and then opened with­in val­ue. A TPO closed as a some­what flim­sy Bear Engulf to equal­ly-long selling/buying wicks, with B fol­lowed as a spin­ning top. C did not extend­ed below and an entry off M15 Bull Engulf I could have wait­ed for it to tran­si­tion into a bull­ish pat­tern on the M30. Which came in the form of a flim­sy M30 Three Out­side Up. Price con­se­quent­ly pushed high­er even extend­ing and clos­ing above IB and val­ue exhaust­ing ADR very late in the ses­sion (out­side of trad­ing window)

Trade 1

DTTZ: 1st

Entry Method: Due to the bal­anc­ing mar­ket nature I could have tak­en an entry off M5 Bull Engulf or oth­er­wise the M15 one. 

Odds enhancer: open with­in val­ue, Val­ue Rejec­tion Fail­ure, Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket, H4 VWAP in UT TC, M15 Bull Engulf, M30 Three Out­side Up, ADR exhaustion, 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1

SL place­ment: Stan­dard SL size would have been good as it was below the for­ma­tion. Long at xx.50, SL at xx.70

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1

Prof­it tar­get: IB high would have been about 1R. VAH would have been 2R. There was no sig­nif­i­cant con­ges­tion in the way to it. 

Click to Enlarge

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: no PA rever­sal so 1.5R time-based

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 1.5R

Extra Obser­va­tions

A true val­ue rejec­tion needs IB to extend in the direc­tion of the intend­ed rejec­tion of val­ue. Oth­er­wise it is not a rejection.

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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