25 Apr Missed Trade Gold 20210423
Play: Value Rejection Failure / Balancing Market
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #tradingreview #priceaction #chartreview #GOLD #XAUUSD #missedtrade
These are trades I could have taken but for some reason I did not. This could be due to me not paying attention or simply not feeling like trading. This is usually the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, personal issues, etc.
Reason for missing the trade
I wasn’t paying attention as I was more focused on GBPNZD.
What would have been the Entry?
The market opened within value and therefore there was a higher likelihood for a failed value rejection and thus playing off nearby LTF SD and or ADR 0.5 / exhaustion levels is a higher probability play. This day it happened to coincide with the trend (as it was UP) and also in line with a H4 VWAP in UT TC.
Price consolidated premarket and then opened within value. A TPO closed as a somewhat flimsy Bear Engulf to equally-long selling/buying wicks, with B followed as a spinning top. C did not extended below and an entry off M15 Bull Engulf I could have waited for it to transition into a bullish pattern on the M30. Which came in the form of a flimsy M30 Three Outside Up. Price consequently pushed higher even extending and closing above IB and value exhausting ADR very late in the session (outside of trading window)
Entry Method: Due to the balancing market nature I could have taken an entry off M5 Bull Engulf or otherwise the M15 one.
Odds enhancer: open within value, Value Rejection Failure, Balancing Market, H4 VWAP in UT TC, M15 Bull Engulf, M30 Three Outside Up, ADR exhaustion,
How was the SL placement and sizing?
SL placement: Standard SL size would have been good as it was below the formation. Long at xx.50, SL at xx.70
How was the profit target?
Profit target: IB high would have been about 1R. VAH would have been 2R. There was no significant congestion in the way to it.
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
Exit: no PA reversal so 1.5R time-based
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
A true value rejection needs IB to extend in the direction of the intended rejection of value. Otherwise it is not a rejection.
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day