NY Premarket Prep Gold 20210607

07 Jun NY Premarket Prep Gold 20210607

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 23 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body with­in range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar clos­ing at D1 QHi (after rejec­tion) with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in its body
  • H4-C‑D 1871.527 formed (at D1 VWAP in UT) through Bull Engulf and con­tin­u­a­tion high­er to H4 QHi. Price fal­tered and reversed giv­ing H4-C‑S 1891.428
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP although H4 changed to down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24224
  • ASR: 11829
    • 300
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1896.100
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1855.800

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1891.428 & W1-C‑S 1889.818 with­in val­ue at PPOC at D1 QHi
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Pos­si­ble H4 Base before NY open after a con­tin­ued move down clos­ing below D1 QHi. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket with a nod to the down­side. Due to Price com­ing from a H4/D1 QHi there could be a rejec­tion to the downside. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF SD and or ADR levels
  • Con: Bear­ish sen­ti­ment favors shorts.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4-C‑S 1891.428 with­in val­ue after an ini­tial rejec­tion of H4 QHi, 
  • Pre­ferred: con­fi­dent close below VAL coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion, sus­tained auction 
  • Con: LTF demand at VAL cre­at­ed dur­ing the con­sol­i­da­tion in LN
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA clos­ing above VAH coin­cid­ing with IB extension. 
  • Con: H4/W1 Supply 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1891.428
• W1-C‑S 1889.818

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1871.527

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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