NY Premarket Prep Gold 20210614 - Bear Market Trader
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NY Premarket Prep Gold 20210614

NY Premarket Prep Gold 20210614

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #pre­mar­ket­prep #XAUUSD #GOLD #Forex­trad­er #forex #FX #Forexlifestyle #day­trade #trade­plan #trad­ing­plan #trad­ing­forex #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Click to Enlarge

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Price trad­ing below last week’s body and range as a con­tin­u­a­tion to W1 Three Out­side Down

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • D1 Bear Engulf and con­tin­u­a­tion, pos­si­ble D1 Phase 4 although arrived at D1 200MA
    • H4 Phase 4 arriv­ing at H4-C‑D 1853.368 OLD with no reac­tion (yet)
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
    • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up 2/3
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the brack­et­ing range
  • Dai­ly Range
    • ADR: 22774
    • ASR: 11388
      • 285
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1902.930
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1874.420


  • Loca­tions
    • W1-C‑S 1888.863 above value
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • NY open
      • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • 2.12xASR
    • Pre­mar­ket
      • Con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 Phase 4 
    • Nar­ra­tive
      • Gap down. Large imbal­ance exhaust­ing ADR dur­ing Lon­don and price is trad­ing near D1 200MA. Price tried tak­ing out old H4 demand but has not suc­ceed­ed (yet).
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 3
  • Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
    • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, trad­ing near D1 200MA and old H4 demand, ADR exhaust­ed, trend is still up 2/3, pos­si­ble PNYC reversal
    • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA extend­ing IB, sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge (quite far pos­si­bly taper expec­ta­tion to LTF sup­plies nearby)
    • Pre­ferred 2: Exten­sion below IB to failed auc­tion for PNYC reversal
    • Con: H4 Phase 4, pos­si­ble start of D1 Phase 4
  • Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
    • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bear­ish nar­ra­tive reject­ing D1 QHi, no arrival at D1 QLo (yet), ADR got exhaust­ed pos­si­ble uni­di­rec­tion­al day, 
    • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auc­tion to D1 QLo, pos­si­ble D1 demand
    • Pre­ferred 2: C TPO extends above IB before D fails the auction
    • Con: Open sen­ti­ment, pos­si­bly hop­ping on the train late (near­ing D1 QLo).
  • Hypo 3 — Auc­tion Fade
    • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 and 2
    • Pre­ferred: Hypo 1 plays out, Return to Val­ue, PA rever­sal, tar­get to IB edge
    • Pre­ferred 2: Hypo 2 plays out hit­ting D1 QLo (or D1 demand), builds struc­ture,  fade the auc­tion to IB edge.
    • Con: N.A.

Addi­tion­al notes

  • Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • D1-C‑S 1888.863

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • D1-C‑D 1825.990

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
    • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING


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