NY Premarket Prep WTI Crude 20210614

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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for WTI Crude. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:

WTI Crude 2021 Week 24 Trading Plan

The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias

Compared against Weekly Trading Plan

• Price is trading above last week’s body and range with no reaction from supply (yet)

Non-conjecture observations of the market

• Price action
  • D1 demand created and continued higher trading at D1-C-S 71.50
  • H4 traded higher forming an inverted hammer
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Prevailing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Market Profile
  • Value created above the flimsy 3-day bracket
• Daily Range
  • ADR: 1272
  • ASR: 1130
  • Day
    • Yesterday’s High 71.221
    • Yesterday’s Low 69.651

Sentiment

• Locations
  • H4-C-D 71.300 above value near LTF demand
• Sentiment
  • NY open
    • ABove Value, Outside Range
  • Open distance to value
    • 0.41xASR
  • Premarket
    • Price closed as an Inverted Hammer
  • Narrative
    • Gap up. Although no mean reversion criteria fulfilled. Trading right into D1 supply there could be som reaction.
• Clarity (1-5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 – Failed Auction
  • Narrative: Trading right into D1/W1 supply
  • Preferred: Price continues higher and reverses to fail auction for PNYC.
  • Con: Trend is up 2/3 
• Hypo 2 – Auction Fade
  • Narrative: Price trades higher off IB extension up hitting W1 Supply before reversing
  • Preferred: TPO structure, PA reversal, target IB edge
  • Con: Trend is up 2/3 
• Hypo 3 – Return to Value, failed auction
  • Narrative: Bullish sentiment
  • Preferred: Price extends below IB before a reversal to fail auction
  • Con: N.A.
• Hypo 4 – Trend Continuation
  • Narrative: Bullish sentiment
  • Preferred: IB extension up, sustained auction to W1 Supply, possible late-sustained auction entry.
• Hypo 5 – Value Acceptance
  • Narrative: trading at MN/W1/D1 Supply
  • Preferred: early acceptance and rotation
  • Con: Trend is up 2/3

Additional notes

• Capital Preservation Rule in effect

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• W1-C-S 73.340
• D1-C-S 71.500

ZOIs for Possible Long

• D1-C-D 15591.00

Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)

• Feeling okay

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Weekly Goal
  • Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
  • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Management
  • Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2. 
  • Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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