Bear Market Trader | Premarket Prep GBPNZD - London session
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08252020

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 08252020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Week­ly goal

  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • D1 closed as doji with­in demand
  • D1 Phase 3 is still more like­ly because of UT and first rejec­tion of D1 QHi (dis­tri­b­u­tion can con­tin­ue a while though. 
  • H4 Bear Engulf formed with­in val­ue yes­ter­day cre­at­ing some sup­ply, today already tak­en out after a morn­ing star (cre­at­ing H4-C‑D 2.00046 what was pre­vi­ous­ly a c‑sup) and con­se­quent push higher
    • H1 cre­at­ed some demand above it and con­se­quent RBR
  • Mid H4 swing, mov­ing away from H4-C‑D 2.00046 and D1-C-SD 2.00546
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • LN open
      • LN open above val­ue, inside range
    • Mul­ti day bracketing
    • ADR 1605
    • ASR 1337
    • W1-C‑S 2.02267 with­in H4 QHi
    • H4-C‑D 2.00046 above H4 QLO, below val­ue, with­in range
    • D1-C-SD 2.00546 right at VAH
    • ADR 0.5 above val­ue, out­side range, with­in low­er time frame supply
    • ADR Exhaus­tion above val­ue, out­side range, at H4 QHi

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Near D1 QHi
  • Mid MN, W1 swing
  • W1 above pre­ced­ing week’s can­dle, with­in range
  • H4, D1 trend is up, W1 is down

Sen­ti­ment — Slight­ly Bearish

  • Sen­ti­ment
    • D1 Phase 3 is still assumed how­ev­er being at the bot­tom of the range there might be some buy­ing com­ing in. Not the safest play, but per­haps if sen­ti­ment con­firms there might be a quick play. Ide­al­ly we have an open above val­ue, out­side range and coin­cid­ing con­di­tions for a mean rever­sion play in line with the D1 Phase 2 short sen­ti­ment. With LN open very close to VAH and with H1 new­ly formed sup­ply I think going long would have a lot of con­ges­tion so prob­a­bly not worth it. 
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 4
  • Hypo 1 — LONG
    • LN open above val­ue, inside range (against over­all phase 3 sentiment)
      • VAH at D1-C-SD 2.00546, IB range exten­sion, sus­tained auction
  • Hypo 2 — Short
    • Val­ue Acceptance

Addi­tion­al notes

  • N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • W1-C‑S 2.02267
  • D1-C-SD 2.00546

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • D1-C-SD 2.00546
  • H4-C‑D 2.00046

Mind­ful Trading

  • Slept okay, still sick

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Week­ly Goal
    • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
    • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
  • Trad­ing Rules
    • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR 
    • Don’t take into con­sid­er­a­tion medi­um time frame c‑lines past 24 hours
    • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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