Premarket Prep GBPNZD 11102020 - Bear Market Trader
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 11102020

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 11102020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Only trade off M30/M15 for entries. M30, time-based, or look for exits after 2 hours (4 TPOs). Unless the entry is real­ly late.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Price trad­ing below the body of W1 Bear Engulf from last week (which isn’t val­ued as much due to the elections)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • Retrace­ment to D1-C‑S 1.93536 (base) (and H4 VWAP) after IB pushed up over value
    • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 2
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • Mul­ti-day brack­et­ing with con­sol­i­da­tion below range
    • ADR: 1338
    • ASR: 888
      • 23
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93992
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92194


  • Loca­tions
    • ADR 0.5 high at D1-C‑S 1.93536 (base)
    • ADR exhaus­tion high after a pos­si­ble H1 sup­ply take out
    • H4-C‑D 1.92790 with­in val­ue (LTF con­sol­i­da­tion on top)
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • With­in value
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • N.A.
    • Sen­ti­ment
      • Bal­anc­ing mar­ket but with chance of val­ue rejec­tion due to H4-C‑D 1.92790 being with­in val­ue and IB trad­ed high­er out­side of val­ue and retraced to D1-C‑S 1.93536 (base) after tak­ing out mul­ti­ple LTF sup­plies which could pos­si­bly indi­cate a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move.
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 3
  • Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure
    • Mar­ket bal­anc­ing trade off near­by LTF sup­ply and ADR levels
    • Pre­ferred: PA rever­sal fol­lowed by pos­si­ble failed auction
  • Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion high
    • With H4-C‑D 1.92790 with­in val­ue (on top of D1 QLo com­bined with LTF con­sol­i­da­tion and (pos­si­ble) val­ue rejec­tion up already indi­cat­ed by IB mov­ing high­er. Plus IB trad­ed 53 pips (which is below 3/4s of range but not far off) and could show grounds for a con­tin­u­a­tion (as well as retracee­ment back to D1-C‑S 1.93536 (base)
    • Pre­ferred: Sus­tained auc­tion and fol­low-through on IB exten­sion up (momen­tum)

Addi­tion­al notes

  • Wednes­day
    • NZD — Mon­e­tary pol­i­cy statement 
  • Thurs­day
    • BOE Gov Bai­ley speaks
  • Fri­day
    • ECB Pres­i­dent Lagarde / BOE Gov Bai­ley / Fed Chair Pow­ell speaks

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • H4-C‑S 1.94070
  • D1-C‑S 1.93536 (base)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • H4-C‑D 1.92790

Mind­ful Trading

  • Feel­ing tired. Not look­ing to force a trade espe­cial­ly with ranges being tighter than usual.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
    • Focus on my own progress and less on others
    • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
    • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
  • Trad­ing Rules
    • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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