Premarket Prep GBPNZD 11112020

11 Nov Premarket Prep GBPNZD 11112020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 46 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade off M30/M15 for entries. M30, time-based, or look for exits after 2 hours (4 TPOs). Unless the entry is real­ly late.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below the body of W1 Bear Engulf from last week (which isn’t val­ued as much due to the elections)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Yes­ter­day closed as D1 bull engulf but this morn­ing com­plete­ly retraced so best guess is D1 Phase 1 / 3
  • H4-C‑S 1.94070 got tak­en out and formed a con­sol­i­da­tion with a huge sell off (pos­si­bly repo­si­tion­ing due to Mon­e­tary pol­i­cy state­ment) this morn­ing giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.94104 return­ing back to orig­i­nat­ing area and clos­ing with­in H4-C‑D 1.92790 just above D1 QLo
  • H4 Inside bar (Marubozu) cre­at­ed react­ing off D1 QLo
  • ADR exhaust­ed dur­ing HK 172%
• Mar­ket Profile
  • After Mon­day trad­ed below brack­et­ing range price trad­ed high­er but failed to sus­tain and we are back where we start­ed. Larg­er time frame bal­anc­ing perhaps.
  • ADR: 1357
  • ASR: 970
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94830
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92758

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.92790 above D1 QLo inside H4 QLo
    • W1-C‑D 1.92790 sup­port­ing below
  • H4-C‑S 1.94104 with­in val­ue below VAH with LTF supply
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, out­side range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.8xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate / large imbal­ance but due to a pos­si­ble con­sol­i­da­tion on D1 we can focus on trad­ing the extremes of the D1 range. The new­ly formed H4 inside bar Marubozu would speak to that as well as the sell off dur­ing HK. Nonethe­less, due to the polit­i­cal sit­u­a­tion I will act with cau­tion and also focus on risk guidelines.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1 — Swing Rever­sal Long
  • H4-C‑D 1.92790 with­in H4 QLo
  • Pre­ferred: a close above H4 QLo, IB exten­sion up (momen­tum), mon­i­tor for sus­tained auc­tion and VAA
  • Con: big pos­si­bil­i­ty of not hav­ing good R/R and it seems the best entry would have been premarket.
• Hypo 2 — Return to Val­ue (Short)
  • Pre­ferred: PA con­fir­ma­tion around VAL (H4 C‑Sup near­by, H4 VWAP), failed auc­tion perhaps
  • Con: It would have crossed up over M30 VWAP and for price to then cross back down rel­a­tive­ly soon it might be less oppor­tune… Might just watch paint dry for the remain­der of the ses­sion until the lat­er hours. If it holds below M30 VWAP we could see a bet­ter opportunity.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Wednes­day
  • NZD — Mon­e­tary pol­i­cy statement
    • Already done in the morning
• Thurs­day
  • BOE Gov Bai­ley speaks
• Fri­day
  • ECB Pres­i­dent Lagarde / BOE Gov Bai­ley / Fed Chair Pow­ell speaks

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94104

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.92790
• W1-C‑D 1.92065

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing good. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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