Premarket Prep GBPNZD 11162020 - Bear Market Trader
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 11162020

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 11162020

#pre­mar­ket­prep #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if possible. 

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Price arrived at and is trad­ing just above W1-C‑D 1.92065

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • Weak D1 Three Inside Up at D1/H4 C‑Dem return­ing back at D1-C‑S 1.92947 which proved reac­tive again form­ing an Inside bar
    • Arrival at H4-C‑S 1.92739 with no clean break away (test­ing sup­ply twice) trad­ing with­in D1 QLo just above H4 VWAP after test­ing H4 QLo and D1-C‑D 1.91857 (at W1-C‑D 1.92065) proved reactive
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • Brack­ets expand­ing dis­tance with cur­rent­ly price trad­ing below Friday’s VA
    • ADR: 1503
    • ASR: 955
      • 25
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93147
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91817


  • Loca­tions
    • H4-C‑S 1.92739 at VAL (LTF Sup­ply as well), D1-C‑S 1.92947 VAH (not far above (tighter VA)
    • Wide ADR exhaustions
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • 0.4xASR
    • Sen­ti­ment
      • After a reac­tion off new­ly formed D1-C‑D 1.91857 H4 closed as a pos­si­ble Base so there might be more down­side on the short term ast here was no fol­low-through to the move. Prefer­ably a return to val­ue play would be best. With rel­a­tive close prox­im­i­ty to VA, even though out­side range, we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the leg down as well. 
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 3
  • Hypo 1 — Return to Val­ue (short)
    • VAL + H4 C‑Sup + LTF supply
    • Pre­ferred: PA rever­sal with­in IB + exten­sion down (momen­tum)
  • Hypo 2 — Con­tin­u­a­tion (short)
    • Pre­ferred: IB clos­ing below W1 C‑dem prefer­ably tak­ing out LTF demand with IB extend­ing down (prefer­ably on momentum)
  • Hypo 3 — VAA (risky)
    • If there is a VAA we could see a move (slow ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty) mov­ing deep­er into over­head sup­ply although this move is not favored. 

Addi­tion­al notes

  • Tues­day
    • BOE Gov Bai­ley Speaks
  • Thurs­day & Friday
    • ECB Pres­i­dent Lagarde Speaks

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • H4-C‑S 1.94104
  • D1-C‑S 1.92947
  • H4-C‑S 1.92739

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • W1-C‑D 1.92065
  • D1-C‑D 1.91857
  • H4-C‑D 1.91432
  • D1-C‑D 1.91298

Mind­ful Trading

  • Slight­ly tired

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
    • Focus on my own progress and less on others
    • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
    • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
  • Trad­ing Rules
    • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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