10 Dec Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12102020
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Don’t take trades where SL placement is suboptimal. Instead, reassess for a better entry if possible. Unless there is a planned momentum trade.
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price trading slightly below last week’s Inside Bar.
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Morning Star at MN-C‑D 1.89659 giving D1-C‑D 1.89819, D1 phase 1 continued
- H4 RBR with no follow-through, instead H4 Three Inside Down (giving H4-C‑S 1.90471) returning to new D1 C‑dem. H4 Phase 1 continued although continuation down closing deeper into demand.
- Market Profile
- 2 day bracketing range with price currently within value
- ADR: 1399
- ASR: 1079
- Yesterday’s High 1.91056
- Yesterday’s Low 1.89060
- D1-C‑D 1.89819 inside value near VAL, ADR 0.5 Low
- H4 QLo below VAL within range
- H4-C‑S 1.91275 at ADR exhaustion high, ADR 0.5 high
- LN open
- Below Value, Within Range
- Open distance to value
- 0.4 x ASR
- Moderate Imbalance. Still in overall range. Premarket and all of Asia traded down exhausting ADR before open which happened around D1 C‑Dem. Due to being at the bottom of the range I am looking for a reversal going long. If price takes out demand around 1.89 there is still more demand below so shorting seems more tricky.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- Hypo 1 — Swing Reversal (Long)
- Preferred: Strong bullish price action with IB extension up on momentum. Monitor for value acceptance and sustained auction. Perhaps an IB extension down with failed auction higher.
- Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal (Short)
- Variation to Hypo 1
- Preferred: Value rotation completed followed by price action reversal at H4 C‑sup. Preferably 4+ TPO structure build up or single print fade.
- Hypo 3 — Responsive activity
- Hypo 4 — Trend Continuation
- Although unfavorable but due to W1 Inside Bar with longer selling wick we could see see a continuation down. In case of a continuation I’d like to see a sustained auction down taking out demands. Best bet a low initiative day. Still trading into demand can be tricky to say the least.
- Brexit talks ongoing. No clear end in sight. Reports of “GBP weakening”.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4-C‑S 1.91275
- H4-C‑S 1.90471
ZOIs for Possible Long
- MN-C‑D 1.89659
- D1-C‑D 1.89819
- D1-C‑D 1.89128
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING