Bear Market Trader | Premarket Prep GBPNZD - London session
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210218

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210218

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • W1 Bull Engulf clos­ing above W1 QLo negat­ing any low­er time frame QHi
    • Moved above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • D1 Inside Bar (at D1 200MA and D1-C‑S 1.92939) with longer buy­ing wick react­ing off new­ly formed demand at D1-C‑D 1.92353
    • H4 is show­ing some con­sol­i­da­tion (cre­at­ing some sup­ply at D1 C‑sup) with longer buy­ing wicks still above H4 VWAP in UT, pos­si­ble redistribution
    • Pre­mar­ket: No fol­low-through on slight move down instead some demand formed above new­ly formed D1 C‑dem (coin­cid­ing with H4 VWAP in UT). Pre­mar­ket closed as H4 Morn­ing Star not clos­ing with­in over­head supply.
  • Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the 5 day brack­et­ing range
    • ADR: 1103
    • ASR: 963
      • 25
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93443
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92275


  • Loca­tions
    • D1-C‑D 1.92353 below val­ue below range
    • New­ly formed H4 morn­ing star c‑dem at VAL com­bined with LTF demand
    • ADR Exhaus­tion High just above LTF sup­plies although H4-C‑S 1.94113 is above
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • With­in Value
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • N.A.
    • Nar­ra­tive
      • Bal­anced mar­ket. Although due to new­ly formed H4 Morn­ing Star and larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment we could pos­si­bly see a Val­ue Rejec­tion Up. Oth­er­wise we can trade off near­by LTF and ADR levels. 
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 4
  • Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
    • Nar­ra­tive: H4 con­sol­i­da­tion, D1 pos­si­ble RBR, Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment.
    • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly strong close above VAH with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction. 
    • Con: Bal­anced open sen­ti­ment and H4 Morn­ing Star not hav­ing closed with­in over­head supply.
    • Vari­a­tion: Pos­si­bly due to H4-C‑S 1.94113 and ADR exhaus­tion we could see a rever­sal if Mar­ket Pro­file and price action rever­sal aligns.
  • Hypo 2 — Bal­anc­ing Market
    • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels
    • Con: larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment.

Addi­tion­al notes

  • N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • H4-C‑S 1.94113
  • D1-C‑S 1.92939

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • D1-C‑D 1.92353
  • H4-C‑D 1.92000
  • D1-C‑D 1.91538
  • W1-C‑D 1.91185
  • MN-C‑D 1.89745

Mind­ful Trading

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
    • Focus on my own progress and less on others
    • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
    • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
  • Trad­ing Rules
    • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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