18 Feb Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210218
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Only take trades according to a hypo unless there are multiple conditions met
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- W1 Bull Engulf closing above W1 QLo negating any lower time frame QHi
- Moved above last week’s body
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Inside Bar (at D1 200MA and D1-C‑S 1.92939) with longer buying wick reacting off newly formed demand at D1-C‑D 1.92353
- H4 is showing some consolidation (creating some supply at D1 C‑sup) with longer buying wicks still above H4 VWAP in UT, possible redistribution
- Premarket: No follow-through on slight move down instead some demand formed above newly formed D1 C‑dem (coinciding with H4 VWAP in UT). Premarket closed as H4 Morning Star not closing within overhead supply.
- Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
- Market Profile
- Value created above the 5 day bracketing range
- ADR: 1103
- ASR: 963
- Yesterday’s High 1.93443
- Yesterday’s Low 1.92275
- D1-C‑D 1.92353 below value below range
- Newly formed H4 morning star c‑dem at VAL combined with LTF demand
- ADR Exhaustion High just above LTF supplies although H4-C‑S 1.94113 is above
- LN open
- Within Value
- Open distance to value
- Balanced market. Although due to newly formed H4 Morning Star and larger time frame bullish sentiment we could possibly see a Value Rejection Up. Otherwise we can trade off nearby LTF and ADR levels.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- Hypo 1 — Value Rejection Up
- Narrative: H4 consolidation, D1 possible RBR, Larger timeframe bullish sentiment.
- Preferred: Early strong close above VAH with IB extension up and sustained auction.
- Con: Balanced open sentiment and H4 Morning Star not having closed within overhead supply.
- Variation: Possibly due to H4-C‑S 1.94113 and ADR exhaustion we could see a reversal if Market Profile and price action reversal aligns.
- Hypo 2 — Balancing Market
- Preferred: Play off nearby LTF SD and ADR levels
- Con: larger timeframe bullish sentiment.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4-C‑S 1.94113
- D1-C‑S 1.92939
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1.92353
- H4-C‑D 1.92000
- D1-C‑D 1.91538
- W1-C‑D 1.91185
- MN-C‑D 1.89745
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING