03 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210303
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Only trade the main account
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price trading below last week’s body above W1 QLo
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 traded lower reacting off D1 QHi closing within W1 QLo leaving a long selling wick. Possible Phase 1 / 3.
- During NY there was a gap up that got smacked down hard. Not sure why.
- H4 Bearish Inside Bar at D1 QHi with some follow-through trading within H4-C‑D 1.91540 within then a Bull Engulf closing slightly above. Possible Phase 1 / 3.
- Premarket: Continuation to the H4 Bull Engulf with long buying wick
- Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Down
- Market Profile
- Value created below previous day’s value
- ADR: 1576
- ASR: 1161
- Yesterday’s High 1.92465
- Yesterday’s Low 1.91170
- H4-C‑D 1.91540 within value below PPOC
- H4-C‑S 1.91955 at VAH with ADR 0.5 High above
- LN open
- Within Value
- Open distance to value
- Due to open within sentiment we can assume a balancing market. Although the H4 continuation closing higher with long buying wick could indicate a possibility for more upside. The H4 supply overhead has been tested multiple times now so is not the strongest. Larger timeframe is still hinting for more bullish sentiment longer term.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- Hypo 1 — Value Rejection Up
- Narrative: H4 price continuation higher with long buying wick after a bull engulf at demand and W1 QLo. Larger timeframe bullish sentiment.
- Preferred: A price consolidation at VAH and H4 C‑sup before closing confidently above value coinciding with an IB extension up and followed by a sustained auction.
- Con: Large supply overhead
- Hypo 2 — Balancing Market
- Narrative: Open inside
- Preferred: play off nearby LTF and ADR levels
- Hypo 3 — Value Rejection Down
- Narrative: D1 trading lower testing 200MA and supplies (although the frequent test is weakening said levels)
- Preferred: Early confident close below value coinciding with IB extension down and sustained auction.
- Con: Larger timeframe bullish sentiment.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S 1.92964
- H4-C‑S 1.91955
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1.91540
- MN-C‑D 1.89719
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING