Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210412

12 Apr Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210412

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 15 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Near­ing W1-C‑D 1.93978 and W1 50MA in DT to pos­si­ble CAS

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Inside bar with sell­ing wick with no continuation
  • H4 Phase 1 or 3 at H4 200MA in UT, no arrival at H4 QLo (about 45 pips below)
• Trend: H4 down, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although price has reached a MN sup­ply and W1 rever­sal print­ed through W1 Three Out­side Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1101
  • ASR: 833
    • 21
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.95303
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94410

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.95934 BASE with­in M30 QHi
  • W1-C‑D 1.96978 At ADR exhaus­tion low
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed as a ham­mer at the end of a long con­sol­i­da­tion after test­ing H4 200MA.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Open with­in val­ue although no brakceting range and could see a rever­sal due to near­by W1 demand and MN still some­what bullish.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open with­in value
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels
  • Con: H4 closed as a ham­mer after much con­sol­i­da­tion react­ing off H4 200MA in UT, pos­si­ble W1 pull­back to Three Out­side Down new supply
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Last Month clos­ing on it’s high, pos­si­ble W1 pull­back to new W1 supply
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close above VAH coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF sup­ply, exhaust­ing ADR ear­ly on.
  • Con: H4 sup­ply and VWAP in DT in the way
• Hypo 3 — M30 Swing Reversal 
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 2
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up, bear­ish price action rever­sal to failed auction
• Hypo 4 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: No arrival at H4 QLo, price below H4 VWAP in DT, Con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 DBD
  • Pre­ferred: Con­fi­dent Close below VAL, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF demand
  • Con: H4 Demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.95934 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96978

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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