Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210413

13 Apr Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210413

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 15 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing at 50% mark of last week’s can­dle retrac­ing the Three Out­side Down

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑D 1.94900 with price return­ing to D1 VWAP in UT pos­si­ble CAR although this same lev­el is coin­cid­ing with D1-C‑S 1.95933 BASE lev­el thus there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move.
  • Mid D1 swing 
  • H4-C‑D 1.95532 BASE cre­at­ed after H4 VWAP in DT BO arriv­ing at H4 sup­ply coin­cid­ing with D1-C‑S 1.95934 BASE lev­el and H4 50MA in DT
  • Mid H4 swing
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: trend is up although price is get­ting some push back due to hit­ting larg­er time­frame supply
• Mar­ket Profile
  • First val­ue cre­at­ed above pre­vi­ous val­ue in DT thus poten­tial­ly start­ing a UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1051
  • ASR: 811
    • 21
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.95670
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94486

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.95934 BASE ADR 0.5 High
  • H4-C‑D 1.95532 BASE at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed slight­ly with­in H4 sup­ply after hit­ting D1 sup­ply base level. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance at the open it could go either way due to base lev­el being hit and open sen­ti­ment. ALthough with a H4 demand base lev­el at VAH this could also mean a short term reversal. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 sup­ply base lev­el hit, close with­in H4 sup­ply, H4 demand base lev­el at VAH could keep price higher 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion. Pos­si­ble low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty due to trad­ing right into supply.
  • Con: H4 supply
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Negat­ing Hypo 1 would be an accep­tance of value
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly acceptance 
  • Con: D1 sup­ply base hit

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.95934 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95532 BASE
• W1-C‑D 1.96978

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing tired — caution

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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