Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210415

15 Apr Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210415

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 15 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing deep­er into W1-C‑D 1.93978 not tak­en out W1 Demand End (yet) though price hit W1 200MA in UT for a first test after a BO

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Last two days have been uni­di­rec­tion­al with yes­ter­day tra­vers­ing 240 pips
  • D1 Closed as a big Three Out­side Down (giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.94900) deep into D1-C‑D 1.93581 halt­ing at D1 200MA
  • H4 phase 4 tak­ing out demands  with­in H4 QLo with price slow­ing down with­in H4-C‑D 1.93183 near­ing the take out of H4 swing low
• Trend: H4 down, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up although after reach­ing a larg­er time­frame sup­ply area there was a reac­tion and price pulled back to a medi­um time­frame demand area. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1186
  • ASR: 892
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.95115
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92728

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1 demand end coin­cid­ing with D1 LKC in UT but D1 QLo is still fur­ther below
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.8xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Con­tin­u­a­tion and sup­ply formed at H4-C‑S 1.92997 BASE tak­ing out H4 demand arriv­ing at H4-C‑D 1.92354.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance at the open. H4 Phase 4 con­tin­ued almost tak­ing out W1 demand. If it gets popped price might bounce back before con­tin­u­ing lower. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1/H4 Phase 4, open sen­ti­ment could show strength behind the move
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action, not too wide IB range, IB exten­sion (momen­tum)  tak­ing out W1 demand, pos­si­ble bounce from IB low after pop of demenad
  • Con: Trad­ing right into H4/D1/W1 demand
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment tra­vers­ing to mean rever­sion lev­el, medium/higher time­frame demand
  • Pre­ferred: strong bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up or failed auction
  • Con: H4/D1 narrative

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.94900
• H4-C‑S 1.92997 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96978
• D1-C‑D 1.93581
• H4-C‑D 1.92354

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay but a lit­tle on edge. Best to be cau­tious today.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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