Bear Market Trader | Premarket Prep GBPNZD - London session
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210603

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210603

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #pre­mar­ket­prep #GBPNZD #Forex­trad­er #forex #FX #Forexlifestyle #day­trade #trade­plan #trad­ing­plan #trad­ing­forex #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
    • 13 trades by the end of the month
  • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
Click to Enlarge

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Price trad­ing in last week’s body after hav­ing moved below with­in range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • D1 Bull Engulf formed yes­ter­day giv­ing D‑C-D1.95239 with con­tin­u­a­tion dur­ing Asia tak­ing out D1 Supply. 
    • H4 Bear Engulf react­ing off D1 QHi with no fol­low-through and con­se­quent move high­er giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.95744 clos­ing with­in D1 QHi. Cur­rent­ly react­ing off H4-C‑S 1.96210 OLD
  • Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
    • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • Yesterday’s val­ue cre­at­ed above the 2 over­lap­ping ones but still with­in over­all range
  • Dai­ly Range
    • ADR: 1176
    • ASR: 815 (very tight)
      • 21
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.95990
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94705


  • Loca­tions
    • H4-C‑D 1.95744 at VAH
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • 0.57xASR
    • Pre­mar­ket
      • H4 closed high­er with­in the old H4 Sup­ply deep­er with­in D1 QHi.
    • Nar­ra­tive
      • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance at the open. Trend is up. And with open above val­ue longs are favored. ASR is a bit tight though so got­ta be a bit care­ful. Pos­si­ble Return to Val­ue play off LTF demand (coin­cid­ing with M30 VWAP in UT) oth­er­wise at val­ue edge. If IB trades high­er ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria with­out tak­ing out sup­ply there could be a mean rever­sion oppor­tu­ni­ty. If price does take out old H4 sup­ply there could be a sus­tained auc­tion. That said with tomor­row being Non­farm Fri­day and sum­mer time, things could be slow through­out the day. 
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 4
  • Hypo 1 — Return to Value
    • Nar­ra­tive: H4 trad­ing high­er with­in old H4 sup­ply (less reli­able sup­ply) open sen­ti­ment con­ducive to a pull­back to val­ue edge or LTF demand. D1 Bull Engulf pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion narrative.
    • Pre­ferred A: Pull­back to val­ue edge / LTF demand, PA rever­sal with­in IB to exten­sion up, 
    • Pre­ferred B: oth­er­wise a test below IB to failed auc­tion to Neu­tral Day.
    • Con: ASR tight, Trad­ing with­in D1 QHi, 
  • Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
    • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, IB trades high­er ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria, price trad­ing at D1 UKC in R
    • Pre­ferred A: IB trad­ing high­er to Mean Rever­sion lev­el (near­ing M30 QHi), although this could take out H4 sup­ply, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge, 
    • Pre­ferred B: or a failed auc­tion to Neu­tral Day in case of ini­tial exten­sion up.
    • Con: Pos­si­bil­i­ty tak­ing out old sup­ply could war­rant a sus­tained auction.
  • Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
    • Nar­ra­tive: Direct con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 narrative, 
    • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion Up, pos­si­ble Late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
    • Con: Sus­pect to say the least due to open sen­ti­ment although 0.57xASR could fall with­in the pos­si­bil­i­ty of strength behind the move if IB backs up the narrative.

Addi­tion­al notes

  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect
  • Tomor­row is Non­farm Friday
  • ASR tighter than usu­al — extra caution

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • W1-C‑S 1.96876
  • H4-C‑S 1.96210 OLD

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • H4-C‑D 1.95744
  • D1-C‑D 1.95239

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
    • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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