12 Jan Premarket Prep Gold 01122021
GBPNZD in a slightly too tight range so will focus on Gold today.
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for GOLD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Don’t take trades where SL placement is suboptimal. Instead, reassess for a better entry if possible. Unless there is a momentum play.
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Reacting off W1 demand after Bear Engulf was formed
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Pin bar with longer buying wick formed at W1-C‑D 1839.109
- H4 Bull Engulf above D1 QLo giving H4-C‑D 1844.527 with no follow-through. Instead some consolidation (creating some supply) with a ‘weak’ bull engulf closing below said supply
- Took out said supply with a continuation from the bull engulf.
- Market Profile
- Values in DT although price is currently trading above value.
- ADR: 36203
- ASR: 18236
- Yesterday’s High 1855.370
- Yesterday’s Low 1816.780
- W1-C‑S 1889.402 above ADR exhaustion
- H4-C‑D 1844.527 at VAL
- Newly formed H4 demand at VAH
- LN open
- Above Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- Moderate to large imbalance. With a H4 consolidation at W1 demand and consequent push higher coinciding with new demand formed at VAH I am more bullishly biased unless we accept value negating the premise.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Preferred: Price action reversal near VAH (perhaps even a quick rotation testing VAL and H4 C‑dem). In case of IB extension down I’d prefer a failed auction to neutral day extending higher. If price traverses down during IB I’d prefer an extension up with sustained auction.
- Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
- Preferred: Price traversing higher towards W1 C‑sup during IB (exhausting ADR), possible IB extension up and failed auction otherwise price action reversal within IB range and consequent move down. Possible TPO structure buildup before reversal.
- Con: ADR Exhaustion
- Hypo 3 — Value Acceptance
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 1889.402
ZOIs for Possible Long
- MN-C‑D 1877.953 coinciding with D1 demand
- H4-C‑D 1844.527 & W1-C‑D 1839.109
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING