Premarket Prep Gold 20210223

23 Feb Premarket Prep Gold 20210223

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 8 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1 demand at W1 QLo / W1 50MA in UT (test­ed 4 times) in a squeeze with W1 VWAP
  • Final­ly broke below W1 50MA and is trad­ing below pos­si­bly form­ing a W1 DBD tak­ing out larg­er time­frame demand
  • Retraced the move almost back to W1-C‑S 1818.073 BASE level

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf with fol­low-through high­er arriv­ing at W1 base lev­el and D1 VWAP in DT
  • Mid D1/H4 swing
  • H4 Phase 2 (with H4-C‑D 1795 BASE) arriv­ing at W1-C‑S 1818.073 BASE (above there is more H4 sup­ply so we could see a reac­tion) with some slow­ing down although some demand is formed giv­ing H4-C‑D 1809 high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 Bear Engulf before reach­ing W1 Base lev­el clos­ing in new­ly formed H4 demand (high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve)
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 Up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Imbal­ance
  • ADR: 26886
  • ASR: 15311
    • 390
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1812.570
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1780.570

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1795 BASE inside val­ue at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.7xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. With a retrace­ment to almost hit­ting W1 Base lev­el (although not hit) and H4 bear Engulf we could see a rever­sal around these lev­els. Although due to no near­by D1 sup­plies over­head we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Swing Rever­sal / Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1 base retrace­ment, H4 bear Engulf in larg­er time frame bear­ish sentiment.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly take out of LTF demand, IB exten­sion down (momen­tum) with sus­tained auction. 
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Fol­low-through on D1 move
  • Pre­ferred: Hit­ting W1 base lev­el, Bull­ish Price action on momentum. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1847.890
• W1-C‑S 1818.073 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1787
• D1-C‑D 1764.5

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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