Premarket Prep Gold 20210225

25 Feb Premarket Prep Gold 20210225

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 8 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1 demand at W1 QLo / W1 50MA in UT (test­ed 4 times) in a squeeze with W1 VWAP
  • Final­ly broke below W1 50MA and is trad­ing below pos­si­bly form­ing a W1 DBD tak­ing out larg­er time­frame demand
  • Trad­ing with­in last week’s body but with slight reac­tion after near­ing W1 base level

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 had no fol­low-through on the pre­vi­ous ral­ly and instead trad­ed low­er try­ing to form a Three Out­side Down. Of which the 3rd can­dle met with lots of reac­tion and closed with a longer buy­ing wick react­ing off D1 QLo.
  • H4 Phase 3 con­sol­i­da­tion with a break low­er (giv­ing H4-C‑S 1805.95) clos­ing below H4 QHi return­ing to H4-C‑D 1795 BASE lev­el then form­ing a Three Inside Up with no fol­low-through, instead a Bear Engulf 
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed low­er into demand
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 Up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Imbal­ance
  • ADR: 26532
  • ASR: 15697
    • 400
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1813.720
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1783.510

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1805.95 at VAL and H4 QHi
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Larg­er imbal­ance. With larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment as well has H4 bear engulf after break from con­sol­i­da­tion / phase 3 (plus return to H4 base lev­el) we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion down. Pre­ferred would be a return to val­ue first. Trad­ing right into demand can be risky.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down with fol­low-through. Open sen­ti­ment could be better.
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion although might be low/medium ini­tia­tive activity
  • Con:  trad­ing right into demand
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Same as Hypo 1 but with a pull­back to val­ue edge and H4 c‑sup
  • Pre­ferred: Move high­er, bear­ish price action, IB exten­sion down + sus­tained auction.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Last two days of the month so not going to do any­thing risky if any

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1847.890
• W1-C‑S 1818.073 BASE
• H4-C‑S 1805.95
• H4-C‑S 1797.090

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1795 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1778

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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