Premarket Prep Gold 20210309

09 Mar Premarket Prep Gold 20210309

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 10 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1-C‑D 1730 below last week’s body close

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 gapped up, then filled and closed as a Bear Engulf clos­ing with­in D1-C‑D 1693 almost tak­ing out W1 demand at 1671.50
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion with break high­er through RBR at H4-C‑D 1682.819
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 Con­tin­u­a­tion high­er reach­ing H4 VWAP in DT
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 days val­ue slight­ly overlapping
  • ADR: 32029
  • ASR: 18360
    • 460
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1714.210
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1676.720

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1705.958 above ADR 0.5 High
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Due to larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment and near prox­im­i­ty to VAH price could accept val­ue. This would also be in line with price arriv­ing at H4 VWAP in DT. Although due to the H4 run high­er per­haps price can try and break out in line with an open above val­ue around D1/W1 demand lev­els we could see a change in sen­ti­ment around these levels. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance 
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment, near prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge, and arrival at H4 VWAP in DT
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly con­fi­dent close with­in val­ue, Quick follow-through.
  • Con: LTF demand and M30 VWAP in UT at VAL
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 run high­er, D1/W1 demands
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action fol­lowed by IB exten­sion up and sus­tain auction. 
  • Con: H4 VWAP in DT
• Hypo 3 — Failed Auc­tion / Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment, price climb high­er to H4 VWAP in DT and H4 C‑sup
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up with bear­ish rever­sal and failed auc­tion oth­er­wise a TPO struc­ture build up and reversal.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1725.10
• H4-C‑S 1715.630
• H4-C‑S 1705.958

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1693
• H4-C‑D 1682.819

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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