Premarket Prep Gold 20210312

12 Mar Premarket Prep Gold 20210312

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 10 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body with­in W1 demand

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 ham­mer at D1-C‑S 1725.10 Base level
  • H4 Three Out­side Up at H4-C‑S 1734.761 giv­ing H4-C‑S 1733.314 with con­tin­u­a­tion down through DBD arriv­ing at H4-C‑D 1715.315 and H4 VWAP in UT clos­ing below H4 QHi
  • Pre­mar­ket: Price trad­ed low­er tak­ing out H4-C‑D 1715.315 arriv­ing at D1-C‑D 1707.500
• Mixed Trend: H4 UP, D1 DOWN, W1 UP
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue in UT
  • ADR: 30560
  • ASR: 19275
    • 490
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1739.760
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1719.160

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1733.314 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. Due to the open sen­ti­ment and arrival at D1-C‑D 1707.500 price might see a mean rever­sion. With H4 Phase 4 in play and larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment price might how­ev­er break low­er as it just has tak­en out H4 demand above this same level. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and D1 C‑sup
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish Price action with IB exten­sion and sus­tained auc­tion. With no H4 sup­plies in the way to VAL we could see a stronger move although this might be coun­ter­played due to larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment. 
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment and H4 phase 4.
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Phase 4 in line with larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action, extend­ing IB below with a sus­tained auc­tion. No sup­plies below till D1-C‑D 1693 and being mid H4/M30 swing might make for a strong play although unlike­ly due to the large imbalance. 
  • Con: Large imbal­ance.  Trad­ing right into new D1 C‑dem.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1733.314
• D1-C‑S 1725.10 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1707.500
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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