Premarket Prep Gold 20210413

13 Apr Premarket Prep Gold 20210413

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 15 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Retrac­ing all of last week’s body, pos­si­ble W1 consolidation

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Down react­ing off D1 50MA in DT (near Sup­ply End) and return to W1-C‑D 1730.366 although still trad­ing with­in D1 supply
  • Mid D1 swing
  • H4 VWAP in UT BD coin­cid­ing with H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down reject­ing H4 QHi arriv­ing at H4-C‑D 1726
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • First Val­ue below 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 21876
  • ASR: 12322
    • 310
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1744.920
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1727.290

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1743.50 near VAL out­side range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bear Engulf (big) cre­at­ing H4-C‑S 1732.662 return­ing to H4 demand 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large imbal­ance. Pos­si­ble mean rever­sion to new­ly formed H4 c‑sup. If there is momen­tum behind the move it could take out H4 demand although not like­ly at the moment.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 demand, large imbal­ance at the open
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action extend­ing IB on momen­tum with sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge
  • Con: New­ly formed H4 c‑sup right in the way giv­ing sub­par Prof­it tar­get (1R)
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: New big H4 bear engulf
  • Pre­ferred: Failed auc­tion after tra­vers­ing to H4 c‑sup with strong bear­ish price action. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1743.50

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1743 BASE
• H4-C‑D 1732.717 / W1-C‑D 1730.366

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing tired — caution

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram