Premarket Prep Gold 20210429 - Bear Market Trader
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Premarket Prep Gold 20210429

Premarket Prep Gold 20210429

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #pre­mar­ket­prep #XAUUSD #GOLD #Forex­trad­er #forex #FX #Forexlifestyle #day­trade #trade­plan #trad­ing­plan #trad­ing­forex #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Pos­si­ble W1 RBR due to price trad­ing above last week’s body although with­in range
  • Price trad­ing at W1 VWAP in DT

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • Price took out D1 demand and closed as a Bull Engulf with long buy­ing wick clos­ing with­in D1 QHi after W1 QLO got reject­ed some time ago). Hav­ing said that price could be in a D1 Phase 3 instead of a redis­tri­b­u­tion (phase 1 after rally)
    • Price returned to H4-C‑S 1785.121 at (H4 UKC in R after UT) with sup­ply hav­ing been test­ed (even near-touch­es) mul­ti­ple times. Need more infor­ma­tion for a pos­si­ble rejec­tion of supply.
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
    • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although medi­um time­frame has shift­ed to down indi­cat­ing a slow­down in the move and pos­si­ble rever­sal on the hori­zon (sor­ry for the con­jec­ture but it was meant as a les­son). REVERSAL IS NOT CONFIRMED.
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • 2‑days over­lap­ping val­ue and yes­ter­day cre­at­ed val­ue below these with cur­rent­ly now price hav­ing extend­ed over the for­ma­tion. Cur­rent­ly trad­ing 1.2xASR above value. 
  • Dai­ly Range
    • ADR: 20577
    • ASR: 13633
      • 340
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1783.120
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1762.540


  • Loca­tions
    • D1-C‑S 1783.85 below M30 QHi, with­in H4 QHi at mean rever­sion distance
    • H4-C‑D 1768.500 at VAH
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • 0.8xASR
    • Pre­mar­ket
      • H4 Bear Engulf formed at D1 supply.
    • Nar­ra­tive
      • Large Imbal­ance. With new­ly formed H4 Bear Engulf there might be a test of new­ly formed c‑sup and thus an exten­sion up from IB before fail­ing auc­tion. Longs are not favored due to the imbal­ance at the open and new­ly formed sup­ply. Unless there is a retrace­ment to val­ue edge.
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 4
  • Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
    • Nar­ra­tive: H4 C‑sup, open sen­ti­ment, D1 QHi
    • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down or oth­er­wise a failed auc­tion test­ing IB exten­sion high. 
    • Con: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Hypo 2 — Return to Value
    • Nar­ra­tive: Price retraces to val­ue edge or LTF demand that is above VAH and reverses
    • Preferred:Strong Bear­ish rever­sal after an exten­sion down, if neu­tral day this could come even quick­er oth­er­wise look for pos­si­ble buy­ing tail and/or TPO struc­ture around val­ue edge. 
    • Con: H4 Bear Engulf

Addi­tion­al notes

  • Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect
  • Near­ing end of the month so be cautious

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • D1-C‑S 1783.85

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • H4-C‑D 1768.500

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
    • Focus on my own progress and less on others
    • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
    • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
  • Trad­ing Rules
    • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING


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