29 Apr Premarket Prep Gold 20210429
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for GOLD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Only trade the main account
- Be mindful of DTTZs
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Possible W1 RBR due to price trading above last week’s body although within range
- Price trading at W1 VWAP in DT
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- Price took out D1 demand and closed as a Bull Engulf with long buying wick closing within D1 QHi after W1 QLO got rejected some time ago). Having said that price could be in a D1 Phase 3 instead of a redistribution (phase 1 after rally)
- Price returned to H4-C‑S 1785.121 at (H4 UKC in R after UT) with supply having been tested (even near-touches) multiple times. Need more information for a possible rejection of supply.
- Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Trend is up although medium timeframe has shifted to down indicating a slowdown in the move and possible reversal on the horizon (sorry for the conjecture but it was meant as a lesson). REVERSAL IS NOT CONFIRMED.
- Market Profile
- 2‑days overlapping value and yesterday created value below these with currently now price having extended over the formation. Currently trading 1.2xASR above value.
- Daily Range
- ADR: 20577
- ASR: 13633
- Yesterday’s High 1783.120
- Yesterday’s Low 1762.540
- D1-C‑S 1783.85 below M30 QHi, within H4 QHi at mean reversion distance
- H4-C‑D 1768.500 at VAH
- LN open
- Above Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- H4 Bear Engulf formed at D1 supply.
- Large Imbalance. With newly formed H4 Bear Engulf there might be a test of newly formed c‑sup and thus an extension up from IB before failing auction. Longs are not favored due to the imbalance at the open and newly formed supply. Unless there is a retracement to value edge.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: H4 C‑sup, open sentiment, D1 QHi
- Preferred: Strong Bearish price action with IB extension down or otherwise a failed auction testing IB extension high.
- Con: Larger timeframe bullish sentiment
- Hypo 2 — Return to Value
- Narrative: Price retraces to value edge or LTF demand that is above VAH and reverses
- Preferred:Strong Bearish reversal after an extension down, if neutral day this could come even quicker otherwise look for possible buying tail and/or TPO structure around value edge.
- Con: H4 Bear Engulf
- Capital preservation rule in effect
- Nearing end of the month so be cautious
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S 1783.85
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1768.500
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING