Premarket Prep Gold 20210503

03 May Premarket Prep Gold 20210503

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 18 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Some D1 demand D1-C‑D 1771.75 cre­at­ed at  D1 VWAP in UT
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3 or 1
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 at H4 LKC in R hav­ing cre­at­ed sup­ply and demand trad­ing in a range
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Price with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 19513
  • ASR: 13011
    • 325
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1773.540
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1764.170

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1771.50 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.7xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Marubozu can­dle up from D1-C‑D 1771.75 stop­ping below D1 QHi
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. Although pre­mar­ket closed as a Marubozu with­in a pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3 there might not be a fol­low-through to the move. If there is there is still the D1 and H4 sup­ply in the way. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — D1 Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Large Imbal­ance at the open, near­by D1-C‑S 1783.50
  • Pre­ferred: Pos­si­ble exten­sion up with strong bear­ish PA fail­ing auction
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment although no test of new­ly formed MN C‑dem (yet)
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: same as Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge
  • Con: same as hypo 1
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 C‑dem at VAH with LTF demand above it in a larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion dow to LTF demand with a strong bull­ish PA to failed auc­tion to Neu­tral Day
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.93470
• H4-C‑S 1.92900

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.92532
• H4-C‑D 1.92040

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram