Premarket Prep Gold 20210506

06 May Premarket Prep Gold 20210506

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 18 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above last week’s W1 formation
• Mid W1 swing
• Still trad­ing above MN-C‑D 1738.50

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 (reac­cu­mu­la­tion) or Phase 3
  • D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar with no fol­low-through. Instead a Bull­ish Inside Bar with longer buy­ing wick react­ing off D1-C‑D 1771.75 and D1 VWAP in UT (although test­ed a few times)
  • Trad­ing with­in D1/H4 QHi
  • H4 Three Out­side Up giv­ing H4-C‑D 1777 and con­tin­ued move high­er to H4 UKC in R
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed below the pre­vi­ous and price is still trad­ing with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22487
  • ASR: 12260
    • 310
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1787.920
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1770.270

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1777 with­in Val­ue at PPOC below VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed high­er above H4 UKC in R but below H4 C‑sup (no test)
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance at the open. There could be a mean rever­sion. Although D1 closed bull­ish yes­ter­day there could be some kind of con­sol­i­da­tion going on. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, Near­by H4 c‑sup at H4 UKC in R
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down, Sus­tained auc­tion, pos­si­ble an exten­sion up to failed auc­tion to Neu­tral Day
  • Con: Trend is up, larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment,
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Phase 2, pos­si­ble H4 pullback
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down to LTF demand and strong bull­ish rever­sal to failed auc­tion. Or if lat­er on in the ses­sion a pos­si­ble TPO struc­ture build up or Sin­gle Print Fade
  • Con: open sentiment
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation 
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion Up, sutained auction,
  • Con: open sentiment
• Hypo 4 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Non-Farm Fri­day tomorrow

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1783.670

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1777
• D1-C‑D 1771.750

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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