Premarket Prep Gold 20210524

24 May Premarket Prep Gold 20210524

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 21 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing slight­ly above last week’s boyd with­in range (although very tight)
• Still trad­ing below W1 QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price trad­ing high­er on D1 with 3 tests of D1 QHi and W1-C‑S 1889.818
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 with some demand cre­at­ed at H4 VWAP in UT giv­ing H4-C‑D 1877.917 (although high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve)
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up but has reached D1/W1 QHi and W1 Supply
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Price trad­ing at the top of over­all range 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22928
  • ASR: 14994
    • 375
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1889.280
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1870.020

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1877.917 with­in val­ue at PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Inside Bar after a move higher
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance although very close to val­ue edge. WIth H$ demand under­neath at PPOC there could be a bounce. Although price could close with­in val­ue before revers­ing with­out a rota­tion through val­ue due to said H4 demand. With trad­ing at W1 sup­ply, if there is an accep­tance of val­ue and con­se­quent rota­tion there could be a shift in sen­ti­ment and pos­si­bly ush­er in the end of the uptrend. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 demand at PPOC
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA at VAH pos­si­bly prob­ing with­in val­ue before bounc­ing off it. IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion pos­si­bly tak­ing out H4 supply
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3, W1 Supply
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble end of Uptrend, W1 Sup­ply, pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3, pos­si­ble W1 pull­back in rally
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance and quick fol­low-through, pos­si­bly con­tin­u­ing to the down­side (less likely,
  • Con: Trend is up

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.818

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1853.372
• D1-C‑D 1825.850

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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