Premarket Prep Gold 20210525

25 May Premarket Prep Gold 20210525

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 21 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing at the top of last week’s body below W1 QHi and W1-C‑S 1889.818

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Doji  reat­ed below W1/D1 QHi
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 with price still trad­ing above H4 VWAP in UT (although mul­ti­ple tests)
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up. Price reached W1 Sup­ply but has not made a sig­nif­i­cant rejec­tion (yet) and inched higher.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 21882
  • ASR: 14981
    • 375
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1886.940
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1875.160

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1889.818 at ADR 0.5 High
  • H4-C‑D 1877.917 and new­ly formed H4 C‑dem at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bull Engulf was formed (at H4 VWAP in UT) clos­ing from below val­ue to above val­ue. Trend is up and there is a pos­si­ble reac­cu­mu­la­tion. Although still trad­ing below W1 supply.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Open above val­ue and H4 Bull Engulf at H4 VWAP in UT sug­gests a pos­si­ble nar­ra­tive where D1 sup­ply gets tak­en out. Although price would be trad­ing right into a very wide W1 Supply. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment. H4 Bull Engulf, Trend is up, test­ed W1/D1 QHi mul­ti­ple times
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out D1 sup­ply (beware of a pos­si­ble LTF rever­sal due to pop­ping of said D1 Supply)
  • Con: W1 Supply
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Price has slowed down below W1 Sup­ply, 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues, pos­si­ble start of a brack­et­ing range, trad­ing below D1/W1 QHi
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance of val­ue with quick follow-through
  • Con: H4 demand at VAL

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.818

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1853.372
• D1-C‑D 1825.850

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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