Premarket Prep Gold 20210614

14 Jun Premarket Prep Gold 20210614

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below W1 Three Out­side Down

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf at W1 C‑sup clos­ing below D1 VWAP in UT with con­tin­u­a­tion and price near­ing D1 Demand End 1855.959 and D1 UKC in UT
  • H4 Phase 4 near­ing D1 demand end coin­cid­ing with H4 200MA in UT
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Price trad­ing below over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22774
  • ASR: 14840
    • 371
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1902.930
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1874.420

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1888.863 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.82xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 con­tin­u­a­tion down
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Huge imbal­ance at the open fol­low­ing a D1 Bear Engulf and H4 Phase 4 near­ing the end of D1 Demand although trad­ing with­in H4 QLo with Trend still being up 2/3.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 QLo, trend is UP 2/3
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) sus­tained auc­tion to VAL
  • Pre­ferred 2: Pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion in case of an exten­sion down pop­ping D1 demand
  • Con: D1/H4 Bear­ish nar­ra­tive, huge imbal­anc­ing pos­si­bil­i­ty for continuation
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1 C‑sup at VAL, D1/H4 bear­ish narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Fad­ing the auc­tion after an exten­sion up
  • Pre­ferred 2: Pos­si­ble failed auction
  • Con: Trend is up 2/3
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Huge Imbal­ance (pos­si­ble strength behind the move), H4/D1 Bear­ish Narrative
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion Down, Sus­tained Auc­tion tak­ing out ADR exhaus­tion (indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion), although due to the open sen­ti­ment I’d pre­fer to wait for a sus­tained auc­tion and pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. 
  • Con: huge open sen­ti­ment, D1 Demand End can prove reac­tive cre­at­ing LTF rever­sals clos­ing with­in IB,

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1825.990

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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