Trade Review GBPNZD 20210308

20 Mar Trade Review GBPNZD 20210308

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #GBPNZD

How was the Entry, SL place­ment and sizing?

On the day price opened with­in val­ue with a larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Price extend­ed above VAH but closed as a Grave­stone Doji (which in my expe­ri­ence is neu­tral like ham­mers the often see a con­tin­u­a­tion then a rever­sal. C TPO pro­ceed­ed to extend above IB reject­ing val­ue in a sus­tained move. My entry was based on a (experiemen­tal) late-sus­tained entry set­up that I had observed before based on a M5 Bull Engulf at VWAP in UT. Dif­fer­ence this time was that it did not coin­cide with a test of IB edge. Regard­less I went long to test my the­sis and got stopped out. SL place­ment was based off entry and a hold below would have negat­ed my the­sis any­way so I believe SL place­ment was good. Anoth­er bad point was that M30 had print­ed a bear­ish inside bar, as well as M15 Three Inside Down. Both not good signs of a con­tin­u­a­tion at this lev­el. Siz­ing was good. 

Quite quick­ly after the first trade price start­ed con­sol­i­dat­ing and had left a weak sell­ing tail in D plus a weak bear engulf dur­ing G TPO. G had start­ed tak­ing out some sin­gle prints and I went short. SL place­ment was not good as it was cut­ting through the for­ma­tion although I was expect­ing a quick move to IB edge. Price reversed and moved high­er tak­ing out SL. 

Odds enhancer: ADR exhaus­tion indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the move due to trad­ing dur­ing the Lon­don session. 

How was the Exit?

SL got hit on both trades. 

Sin­gle Print Fade Exit

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Both trades that I was in were not good. The trade I “should have” been in was the exten­sion in C coin­cid­ing with a momen­tum move as well as a val­ue rejec­tion. This would have net­ted about 1.5R time-based. Although a 2R tar­get could have been hit pri­or to that oth­er­wise LTF price action could have war­rant­ed an exit. This trade would have been risky due to ADR 0.5 high at VAH and the ten­den­cy for a bal­anc­ing mar­ket due to open with­in val­ue (at the time I was look­ing for a poten­tial val­ue rejec­tion fail­ure and was look­ing for a poten­tial short. Hav­ing said all this I am get­ting bet­ter at rec­og­niz­ing the mar­ket con­di­tions for a val­ue rejection. 

What could I have done better?

I should not have tak­en the late-sus­tained auc­tion entry as there was less con­flu­ence + M30/M15 already print­ing a rever­sal (even though this got tak­en out again lat­er in the ses­sion but hind­sight is 20/20. We trade what we see in the moment and I ‘missed’ or did not give enough weight to this price action). Same for the sin­gle print fade as ADR had been exhaust­ed and M30 con­sol­i­da­tion had a weak bear engulf attempt of a break down. As well as struc­ture that was cre­at­ed was very wide in value. 

Don’t take exper­i­men­tal setups until after hav­ing sta­tis­ti­cal­ly proven its edge. 

Obser­va­tions

With neu­tral price action from with­in val­ue, price can still reject val­ue through an IB exten­sion. Espe­cial­ly when coin­cid­ing with a momen­tum move. 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day