Trade Review GBPNZD 20210407 - Bear Market Trader
Trade Review, Reviewing Trades, CPT, Consistently Profitable Trader, day trading, swing trading, road to success, road to becoming a CPT,

Trade Review GBPNZD 20210407

Trade Review GBPNZD 20210407

Play: Mean Rever­sion to D1 Bear Engulf 2nd Chance Entry 

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD

How was the Entry?

Entry was good. There was a wide IB range indi­cat­ing momen­tum and I had placed a Buy Stop Order at a pos­si­ble IB exten­sion up which came dur­ing C TPO enhanc­ing the momen­tum behind the move. Entry could have been clos­er to IB edge but I want­ed a lit­tle more con­fi­dence and not get straight in on the firs TPO out­side of IB. I have seen before where that hap­pens and price revers­es. Usu­al­ly 3 or more prints out­side is a good indi­ca­tor. This time I did it about 5 prints above with the spread on top of that it wasn’t the best Entry exe­cu­tion although due to being a momen­tum trade this can be some­what forgiven. 

Odds enhancer: near­by D1 VWAP in UT, Price fal­ter­ing below H4 LKC in R

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Again good. Due to the momen­tum nature of the trade the SL place­ment cut­ting through for­ma­tion can be for­giv­en. Siz­ing was good due to using FX syn­er­gy cal­cu­lat­ing posi­tion sizes. 

How was the prof­it target?

Prof­it tar­get was good okay even though Val­ue edge would have net­ted near­ly 3R there was a big LTF sup­ply at val­ue edge. ADR exhaus­tion was on the way as well which could have meant a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move although not like­ly due to D1 bear­ish sentiment. 

Click on Image to Enlarge

How was the Exit?

Not good. I looked at how much price had tra­versed in accor­dance with the ASR and as it was near­ly run­ning out and there was ADR 0.5 high just above I pock­et­ed prof­its with­out a price action based exit rule at 0.5R. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

A price action-base exit would have yield­ed 1R.

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Time-based this would have yield­ed ‑0.1R due to the Return to Val­ue play coin­cid­ing with a D1 Bear Engulf 2nd Chance Entry play 

What could I have done better?

I could have instead of focus­ing on ASR focused on ADR as that is ulti­mate­ly what give the price it’s full range. Learned my les­son. Anoth­er obvi­ous thing that I am recent­ly strug­gling with is tak­ing prof­its too soon and I should have wait­ed for a price action-based exit. Live and learn. 


A D1 nar­ra­tive with a mean rever­sion to new­ly devel­oped D1 sup­ply even though being very bear­ish due to the large imbal­ance the most prob­a­ble play for the 1st DTTZ was a mean rever­sion BUT, an even more con­fi­dent play would have been a Return to Val­ue at new­ly devel­oped D1 sup­ply which came at the 2nd DTTZ which I failed to take. 

Anoth­er obser­va­tion is that ADR can get exhaust­ed dur­ing Lon­don but with­in a Bear­ish mar­ket sen­ti­ment it is not like­ly for a con­tin­u­a­tion in ini­tial direction. 

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty

As men­tioned at the 2nd DTTZ there was a rever­sal in line with a Return to Val­ue coin­cid­ing with a 2nd chance entry on the D1 Bear Engulf (with­in a larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment). I think I kin­da zoned out on focus­ing what went wrong with the first trade and per­haps I was beat­ing myself up a bit for not exe­cut­ing my plan per­fect­ly. Although I tracked the oppor­tu­ni­ty with­in my Play­book and will aim to catch it next time. Progress, not perfection. 

Click on Image to Enlarge

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Notify of

Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x