10 Apr Trade Review GBPNZD 20210408
Play: Return to Value, H4 consolidation breakdown within possible D1 DBD
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #tradingreview #priceaction #chartreview #GBPNZD
I have already reviewed these trades but I like to go back and review them again. Hence this new format I am introducing into my process.
How was the Entry?
There was a possible D1 DBD narrative with a near-Doji that closed with longer selling wick and having made a LL after touching D1 VWAP in UT. Premarket H4 had broken down from a consolidation and London openen 0.2xASR below value, within range.A bear Engulf in A with an inside bar in B I waited for a possible DBD which came with C extending and closing below IB forming that DBD. With a moderate imbalance price could see retest of newly formed M30 supply for a 2nd chance entry so this is where I put my Sell Limit order. This was a great entry.
Odds enhancer: M15 VWAP in DT nicely rejecting VWAP prior to the move
How was the SL placement and sizing?
With entry at a round number x.xx60 SL was perfect due to being at x.xx85 and above the candle formation and IB.
How was the profit target?
Due to D1 narrative of another potential drop coming and no D1 demand in the way I could have negated the H4 demand that price was trading within and assumed it would get taken out. Thus profit target was very good. Although trading right into demand can always be tricky.
How was the Exit?
Horrible. There was no exit rule in place and I just acted out of FOMO. A poor low was formed and when it got popped and hit LTF demand I just took the trade off. That and the reason that I am actively observing what happens to LTF price when a medium/higher timeframe supply/demand area gets popped. There is usually a bounce back which according to my exit rules I should have closed off the trade at 0R scratch. The actively observing part I am referring to is that even though this is a strong reversal pattern, within the higher timeframe context being still valid this reversal pattern can be ignored. This is what happened after a bull engulf was printed coinciding with a weak failed auction. Price failed to find more business higher and reversed to ultimately continue lower.
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
As mentioned above according to my existing exit rules I would have had to scratch the trade.
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
A time-based exit would have yielded only 0.5R although due to the nature of the move (ie. H4 demand taken out within D1 bearish sentiment) I could have gone into overlap noise which on its close would have only netted 1R after reaching for 1.5R. Later on in the session price eventually reached 2R.
What could I have done better?
I think I did somewhat okay here although not proud of myself for taking profits too soon without a price action reversal. Although I was actively forward-testing the premise of when a medium/higher timeframe SD ares gets popped. Progress, not perfection.
Whenever a Medium or Higher/larger timeframe supply or demand zone gets popped we can often see price printing reversal patterns on LTF timeframes we usually deem reliable for entries and exits.
This particular day there was no missed opportunity unless you count the 2nd DTTZ coinciding with a pull back to IB Edge. This could have been another entry or potentially your first entry if you missed the first one.
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day