Trade Review GBPNZD 20210420 - Bear Market Trader
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Trade Review GBPNZD 20210420

Trade Review GBPNZD 20210420

Play: Failed Val­ue Accep­tance to Return to Val­ue Play

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD

I have already reviewed these trades but I like to go back and review them again. Hence this new for­mat I am intro­duc­ing into my process.

How was the Entry?

Price opened Above Val­ue, With­in Range and pro­ceed­ed to close with­in Val­ue con­fi­dent­ly dur­ing IB. When there was an exten­sion of IB down I went short expect­ing a val­ue rotation. 

At the time I had not plot­ted the H4 demand con­ter­mi­nous line on my mar­ket pro­file chart oth­er­wise this would have negat­ed any short sen­ti­ment due to that H4 demand. 

H4 demands espe­cial­ly at val­ue edges are a strong set­up for a bounce from that lev­el. Hence the short trade reversed with­in the same TPO and closed as a Bull­ish Engulf­ing. This was the actu­al play of the day. 

The H4 demand at VAH com­ing from a H4 phase 4 nar­ra­tive caused an ini­tial exten­sion down that with­in the same TPO failed the auc­tion by clos­ing strong­ly with­in IB through an Bull Engulf­ing with longer buy­ing wick. 

After I got tak­en out on the short I imme­di­ate­ly went long on the close of C TPO as per 1st DTTZ still.

Odds enhancer: Open Above, With­in Range, M30 QLo, H4 demand, VAH, test of Val­ue, Failed Auc­tion, bull engulf, H4 VWAP in DT BO CAS, 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Entry was on x.xx80, SL x.xx53 was good although slight­ly low­er would have been bet­ter. For this I could have used a 2nd chance entry although Close of the Bull Engulf in C and thus its new­ly formed demand line wasn’t that far off so I believe the entry was good. Plus SL place­ment was right at the bot­tom of the over­all for­ma­tion. I could have used M15 for a bet­ter entry though as M15 Bull Engulf would have giv­en a bet­ter fine-tuned entry through a Buy Lim­it Order a few pips above new­ly formed M15 demand.

Siz­ing is where I fucked up. I had entered one a full 1R size on the first short that got stopped out. Thus when enter­ing on the sec­ond one I went in ‘light’ as my cal­cu­la­tions for posi­tion siz­ing was off as I had not done the cal­cu­la­tions for it. This I now have rec­ti­fied by plac­ing the cal­cu­la­tor at the top of my screen to increase the chances I get this right the next time. 

How was the prof­it target?

Prof­it tar­get on the first trade (if there had not been H4 demand in the way) it would have been good. 

The sec­ond trade (long) had a poten­tial prof­it tar­get of about 3R at M30 QHi (although nev­er got hit). Dur­ing the trad­ing win­dow 1.4R was hit at the Trad­ing Win­dow Close. 

CLick to Enlarge

How was the Exit?

Well we know what hap­pened at the first trade as this got stopped out result­ing in ‑1R

The sec­ond trade could have been a nice trade but no I grasshop­pered out of the trade due to D clos­ing as an invert­ed ham­mer and a fol­low­ing M15 Bear Engulf in E. Even though I know invert­ed ham­mers have sub­par sta­tis­tics for a rever­sal I closed off the trade dur­ing E at what should have been ‑0.4R loss but due to bad posi­tion siz­ing (as I had added anoth­er half posi­tion to the trade to try and rec­ti­fy the siz­ing) this trade turned into a ‑1R loss. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?


What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?


What could I have done better?

I should not have been trad­ing this day at all. I had been sleep­ing bad­ly for quite some days due to a loss in the fam­i­ly (my gf’s). With all the cer­e­monies involved etc. and bad judge­ment in all of the sud­den eat­ing fruit or what­ev­er 1–2 hours before bed on cer­tain days made me sleep bad­ly. I couldn’t get to sleep until much lat­er around 3–4am and had to get up at 8am so…. 

Not a good mix. All good though. What is not good is that I missed this met­ric I have for myself (and have writ­ten in bold let­ters in my trad­ing plan) to decide not to trade as I did the day before. I decid­ed the day before (Mon­day) not to trade exact­ly due to this. 

Because of this I added this to my mind­ful trad­ing para­graph in my trad­ing plan tem­plate to hope­ful­ly bet­ter catch this. 

Anoth­er thing I could have done bet­ter was to not short right into a H4 demand that is at val­ue edge even though val­ue seemed accept­ed. BIG NO NO but I already addressed this above and I won’t do this next time. Thank­ful­ly I stuck to oth­er risk para­me­ters as not over­trad­ing etc. 

Last­ly, I should have not grasshop­pered out of the GOOD trade. I got con­fused with if val­ue per­haps was still indeed accept­ed after all and I just got out. Bet­ter safe then sor­ry but I was obvi­ous­ly not think­ing straight here… Ah well. #NEXT


My per­son­al con­cepts of using VWAP is a great addic­tion or odds enhancer to the sup­ply and demand, as well as order­flow methodology.

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty


Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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