24 Apr Trade Review GBPNZD 20210420
Play: Failed Value Acceptance to Return to Value Play
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #tradingreview #priceaction #chartreview #GBPNZD
I have already reviewed these trades but I like to go back and review them again. Hence this new format I am introducing into my process.
How was the Entry?
Price opened Above Value, Within Range and proceeded to close within Value confidently during IB. When there was an extension of IB down I went short expecting a value rotation.
At the time I had not plotted the H4 demand conterminous line on my market profile chart otherwise this would have negated any short sentiment due to that H4 demand.
H4 demands especially at value edges are a strong setup for a bounce from that level. Hence the short trade reversed within the same TPO and closed as a Bullish Engulfing. This was the actual play of the day.
The H4 demand at VAH coming from a H4 phase 4 narrative caused an initial extension down that within the same TPO failed the auction by closing strongly within IB through an Bull Engulfing with longer buying wick.
After I got taken out on the short I immediately went long on the close of C TPO as per 1st DTTZ still.
Odds enhancer: Open Above, Within Range, M30 QLo, H4 demand, VAH, test of Value, Failed Auction, bull engulf, H4 VWAP in DT BO CAS,
How was the SL placement and sizing?
Entry was on x.xx80, SL x.xx53 was good although slightly lower would have been better. For this I could have used a 2nd chance entry although Close of the Bull Engulf in C and thus its newly formed demand line wasn’t that far off so I believe the entry was good. Plus SL placement was right at the bottom of the overall formation. I could have used M15 for a better entry though as M15 Bull Engulf would have given a better fine-tuned entry through a Buy Limit Order a few pips above newly formed M15 demand.
Sizing is where I fucked up. I had entered one a full 1R size on the first short that got stopped out. Thus when entering on the second one I went in ‘light’ as my calculations for position sizing was off as I had not done the calculations for it. This I now have rectified by placing the calculator at the top of my screen to increase the chances I get this right the next time.
How was the profit target?
Profit target on the first trade (if there had not been H4 demand in the way) it would have been good.
The second trade (long) had a potential profit target of about 3R at M30 QHi (although never got hit). During the trading window 1.4R was hit at the Trading Window Close.
How was the Exit?
Well we know what happened at the first trade as this got stopped out resulting in ‑1R
The second trade could have been a nice trade but no I grasshoppered out of the trade due to D closing as an inverted hammer and a following M15 Bear Engulf in E. Even though I know inverted hammers have subpar statistics for a reversal I closed off the trade during E at what should have been ‑0.4R loss but due to bad position sizing (as I had added another half position to the trade to try and rectify the sizing) this trade turned into a ‑1R loss.
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
1.4R
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
1.4R
What could I have done better?
I should not have been trading this day at all. I had been sleeping badly for quite some days due to a loss in the family (my gf’s). With all the ceremonies involved etc. and bad judgement in all of the sudden eating fruit or whatever 1–2 hours before bed on certain days made me sleep badly. I couldn’t get to sleep until much later around 3–4am and had to get up at 8am so….
Not a good mix. All good though. What is not good is that I missed this metric I have for myself (and have written in bold letters in my trading plan) to decide not to trade as I did the day before. I decided the day before (Monday) not to trade exactly due to this.
Because of this I added this to my mindful trading paragraph in my trading plan template to hopefully better catch this.
Another thing I could have done better was to not short right into a H4 demand that is at value edge even though value seemed accepted. BIG NO NO but I already addressed this above and I won’t do this next time. Thankfully I stuck to other risk parameters as not overtrading etc.
Lastly, I should have not grasshoppered out of the GOOD trade. I got confused with if value perhaps was still indeed accepted after all and I just got out. Better safe then sorry but I was obviously not thinking straight here… Ah well. #NEXT
Observations
My personal concepts of using VWAP is a great addiction or odds enhancer to the supply and demand, as well as orderflow methodology.
Missed Opportunity
N.A.
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day
