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Trading Plan Crude Oil 04082020 

Trading Plan Crude Oil 04082020 

These are my hypo­thet­i­cals for today’s crude oil ses­sion. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Then I come up with ways I think the mar­ket will react around those lev­els. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my hypoth­e­sis. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not sell­ing you any­thing. I just love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

(In order of what I think has a high­er probability)

Hypo­thet­i­cals

  1. Short — M30 50MA rejection
    1. Price hits M30 50MA and Prev. EU ses­sion low
    2. Entry short around 28.80
    3. Tar­gets 
      1. 28.60
      2. 28.50
      3. Extend­ed tar­get 28.30
  2. Range bound 28.30 — 29.08
  3. Long — M30 H4 VWAP cross over
    1. Price finds sup­port above H4 Demand ZOI nd price action con­firms a M30 H$ VWAP cross over
    2. Entry long around 28.50
    3. Tar­gets 
      1. 28.80
      2. 29.05
      3. Extend­ed tar­get 29.30
  4. Short — M30 50MA Break Out Failure
    1. Price tries and break out and hits stronger (8) M30 Sup­ply ZOI just below H4 QHi and we reverse
    2. Entry short around 29.10
    3. Tar­gets 
      1. 28.70
      2. 28.60
      3. Extend­ed tar­get 28.30

EDIT: Hypo1 played out dur­ing the Asian Session

Obser­va­tions of the market

  • Dai­ly is show­ing a cross over VWAP and is con­sol­i­dat­ing just above VWAP hint­ing for a bull­ish sen­ti­ment on the longer term.
  • Pre­vi­ous­ly H4 broke over VWAP and we are try­ing to ini­ti­ate an uptrend. Yes­ter­day we pulled back to VWAP but broke through a lit­tle bit and then bounced back. It is because of this that I think we might see more downside. 
  • M30 is show­ing big drop down to 200MA and bounced back over H4 VWAP how­ev­er M30 VWAP crossed down over H4 VWAP and with price show­ing diver­gence with the M30 VWAP indi­cat­ing it might be overextended
  • Price moved towards M30 50MA and might run into some sellers

Let me know what you think and get in touch. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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