USDCAD – Week 19 Trade Plan

These are my hypotheticals for Week 19 of USDCAD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. Then I come up with ways I think the market will react around those levels. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my hypothesis. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not selling you anything. I just love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Monthly – Conservatively Bearish

• After the Monthly high of January ‘16 price has retraced back to previous MN Demand ZOI (1.19-1.25) created by pullback in the imbalance leading up to the high in preceding years (starting 2010/2011)
• Price consequently has been trading sideways within Keltner Channels (upper half),  which has been flattening, indicating further balancing in market although price respected 50MA (which is flattening confirming the balancing)
• 2 more rejections of this MN Demand ZOI (1.192-1.245) resulted in consequent higher MN Demand ZOIs at 1.25-1.29 and stronger MN Demand at 1.29 – 1.32 (following 50MA) 
• Followed by a Phase 2 mark up (January 2020) to previous MN Supply ZOI. Traded slightly higher taking out previous Supply before reversing and forming a slightly higher new MN Supply ZOI @ upper Keltner band
• Price action neither confirming or denying a potential reversal although price halted at upper Keltner band after moving away from VWAP (slightly overextended) possibly signaling a mean reversion. Further lower time frame analysis needed for directional bias
• MN Conterminous Bearish 1.394
• No Q points active

Weekly – Conservatively Bearish

• Price tested previous W1 Supply ZOI 1.47-1.50 with immediate rejection
• Tall Weekly Supply ZOI of 1.40-1.47 with price action of unequal candle bodies indicating possible phase 3 distribution in process
• Price trading above upper keltner band in a sideways market indicating a more bearish bias because of potential of reversal, VWAP pulling up to price, but price action not confirming a continuation of possible uptrend (yet) 
• More bearish after a possible break down of VWAP
• W1 Conterminous Bearish 1.397
• No Q points active

Daily – Bearish

• February and March on Daily showing overextension from VWAP as well as Keltner channel with consequent break down of VWAP and re-entering of (widening) KC
• Price has tested D1 Supply ZOI 1.40-1.43 multiple times
• Further signs of Phase 3 distribution within D1 Supply ZOI with consequent Three Outside Up at 50MA re-testing D1 Supply ZOI indicating a possible overextension from VWAP to upper KC (possible absorption of buyers before further sell off, need more confirmation on lower time frame + Market Profile)
• MN Conterminous Bearish 1.406
• No Q points active

H4 – Bearish

• H4 increased volatility indicated by price exceeding upper and lower KC while in Range
• Last swing low coincided with stronger H4 Demand ZOI 1.37-1.38 and move below lower KC
• VWAP BO with potential overextension (from VWAP) in line with possible Daily overextension to upper KC within H4 Supply ZOI 1.42-1.43
• H4 Q points active. Price trading within QHi.

Market Profile (still learning to get a better read on MP)

• Last Friday’s London session was in balance with consequent trend day during NY. Closed within NY VA
• Price above London VAH

Hypotheticals for the London session

1. Swing Reversal H4 Supply ZOI
   1. Price action confirming on H4 rejecting H4 Supply ZOI
   2. Possible short entry around 1.417
   3. Targets 1.411, 1.406, 1.402, extended target 1.396
2. M30 VWAP BD
   1. Price action + MP extending IB confirming a break below VWAP
   2. Possible short around 1.406
   3. Targets 1.402, 1.396
3. Prev. Day High Reversal
   1. M30 Price action + MP extending IB confirming rejection
   2. Possible short around 1.409
   3. Targets 1.406, 1.402, 1.396

Trade location for a long-bias

• Swing low to H4 Demand ZOI 1.38 with further price action confirmation