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This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair USDCAD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not selling you anything. I just love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly – Bearish
- Clean rally to Monthly Supply ZOI 1.38146-1.46872, followed by inside bar (after rejection of Q1/Y1 QHi) just below upper KC in a ranging market
- Although developing month (no close) is testing UKC and MN QHi
- Price has not left MN Supply ZOI still above conterminous line 1.38157 but previous month close was below MN QHi
- Potential for normal formation or RBD
- MN Conterminous Supply best 1.39511 (same as D1 conterminous demand)
- Price still hasn’t left previous month candle’s body
Weekly – Bearish
- Clear rejection of Q1/Y1 QHi within W1 Supply ZOI with multiple retests of W1 Conterminous Supply line 1.41851 indicating phase 3 distribution
- Price above upper KC in ranging market
- W1 Demand ZOI formed at the bottom of the Phase 3 range, conterminous demand at 1.41108
- W1 phase 3 range is still in effect although trading below W1 QHi
Daily – Slightly Bearish
- Price consolidated at D1 Demand ZOI and formed a bullish engulf at D1 QLo
- Bearish Engulfing at base from May 14th having created the ‘best’ conterminous supply, price has returned to it after closing outside of D1 QLo
H4 – Bearish
- After Bullish engulf (conterminous demand 1.39312) price moved higher with initially some congestion.
- Price moved closer to Previous ‘best’ D1 conterminous supply and consequently closed the week off exactly below MN/W1 QHi with a Bearish Engulfing
Sentiment summary – Bearish
- Larger time frames are still looking bearish due to phase 3 on W1 and a possible normal formation / RBD on the MN1. H4 is showing a rejection of previous D1 conterminous supply (lower than previous) increasing the bearish sentiment. However due to price not having left the Weekly Phase 3 range I will be on the lookout for congestion and bullish sentiment on short to medium term.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4 conterminous supply 1.40098
- D1 conterminous supply 1.40628
- D1 conterminous supply 1.40928
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1 QLo & H4 conterminous demand 1.39312
- D1 conterminous demand 1.39511
- H4 conterminous demand 1.38879
Focus Points for trading development
- Exit rules
- Option 1: hold trade until 12:30
- Option 2: Target hit (SL 20 pips + spread or x2 TP)
- NO OPTION 3
- UNLESS a trade is entered within 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
- Entry rules
- No staring at M5 chart
- Trade needs to have a target that has the chance of hitting min. X2 R/R
- Use TPO confirmation or invalidation for directional decisions by looking for
- TPO extension with a sustained move (BO from IB)
- TPO extension with failed auction (return to IB)
- How this direction of TPO extension relates to Value Area open sentiment
- Confluence with H4 conterminous line and lower time frame confirmation for early entry
- I will post trades including:
- Trade location
- Price action entry condition
- What were TPOs doing at the time
- With screenshot
- Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations
