20210621 Premarket Prep WTI Crude NY

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This is my premarket prep for today’s NY session for WTI Crude. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:

WTI Crude 2021 Week 25 Trading Plan

The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias

Compared against Weekly Trading Plan

• Price traded higher last week closing neutral, currently price is trading within body

Non-conjecture observations of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Down giving D1-C‑S 71.448 with no continuation. Instead some D1 demand formed just below at D1 VWAP in UT.
  • H4 Bear Engulf and continuation down
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Prevailing trend: Trend is UP 2/3 
• Market Profile
  • 2 overlapping values, no bracket
• Daily Range
  • ADR: 1434
  • ASR: 1319
    • 33
  • Day
    • Yesterday’s High 71.979
    • Yesterday’s Low 70.026

Sentiment

• NY open
  • Below Value, right at VAL
• Open distance to value
  • 0.01xASR
• Narrative
  • Moderate Imbalance. Open slightly below VAL coming from a H4 Bear Engulf at D1 Supply trading right into D1 Demand. Although the trend is up 3/3.
• Clarity (1-5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1
  • Value Acceptance, early acceptance and follow-through although supply within value
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auction long, price extends down probing demand
• Hypo 3
  • Auction Fade Short, variation to Hypo 1
• Hypo 4
  •  Auction Fade Long at H4-C-D 70.553
• Hypo 5
  • Failed Auction Short, probe of value

Additional notes

• Capital Preservation Rule in effect

ZOIs for Possible Shorts

• D1-C-S 71.448

ZOIs for Possible Long

• H4-C-D 70.553

Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)

• Feeling okay

Focus Points for trading development

• Monthly Goals
  • No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Weekly Goal
  • Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
  • Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Management
  • Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2. 
  • Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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