20210819 Missed Trade DAX - Bear Market Trader
Missed Trade Review, Reviewing Trades, CPT, Consistently Profitable Trader, day trading,

20210819 Missed Trade DAX

20210819 Missed Trade DAX

Play: Sus­tained Auc­tion, Late-Sus­tained Auc­tion Entry

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

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Rea­son for miss­ing the trade (explain the narrative)

There was a D1 base formed with a sell­ing wick test­ing D1 sup­ply. H4 looked to be tran­si­tion­ing into H4 Phase 4 due to a close slight­ly below the over­all range. Open 1.25xASR below val­ue, out­side of range, large imbal­ance usu­al­ly means a mean rever­sion. When C extend­ed strong­ly below I gath­ered a sus­tained auc­tion or uni­di­rec­tion­al day was more likely. 

I didn’t know at the time that the big boys are set­tling accounts before the ECB rate deci­sion caus­ing a sell off which they call a Risk-Off day. 

I missed the break off IB entry due to not being at my desk. I wasn’t home yet. 

The late-sus­tained auc­tion entry I sim­ply hes­i­tat­ed. I could have gone for it as it is some­thing I have observed before. 

What hypo was it?

Hypo 1

Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, IBR wide, pos­si­ble entry on weak­ness from with­in IBR to join the auc­tion, or late-sus­tained auc­tion entry

What would have been the Entry?

Trade 1

DTTZ: 1st

Entry Method: I was con­sid­er­ing to go short on the M15 Bull­ish Inside Bar think­ing that the Poor Low that was formed was more like­ly to get tak­en out. 

C closed Bear­ish and D had not left a sell­ing tail in C so the sen­ti­ment was still bear­ish at the time. Price then made a Poor Low with C and D where the pro­file had a 2 print low (ie no tail at all). The expec­ta­tion was for E TPO to at least take out the low not nec­es­sar­i­ly have much of a continuation. 

Entry could have been off the close of the M15 Hammer.

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1

SL place­ment: SL could have been tighter right above the M15 entry formation.

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1

Prof­it tar­get: 0.9R at Poor Low, if I would use a bet­ter SL place­ment this would have been 1.2–1.4R, trade even­tu­al­ly went much fur­ther 2+R

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 2R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 2R would have been hit oth­er­wise ‑1R

TAGS: Below Val­ue, Out­side Range, Large Imbal­ance, Poor Low, Trend is UP 2/3,

Extra Obser­va­tions

Risk-Off Day: big boys mov­ing cash from equi­ties to bonds due to upcom­ing rate deci­sion from ECB. Some cor­rec­tion is to be expect­ed. Per­fect­ly nor­mal ahead of any poten­tial rate changes. 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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