20210820 Missed Trade DAX T1 - Bear Market Trader
Missed Trade Review, Reviewing Trades, CPT, Consistently Profitable Trader, day trading,

20210820 Missed Trade DAX T1

20210820 Missed Trade DAX T1

Play: Strength From With­in IBR

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

Rea­son for miss­ing the trade (explain the narrative)

There was a D1 DBD the day before. H4, even though form­ing a Bull Engulf, showed no con­tin­u­a­tion high­er to the move. Instead there was an Evening Star and formed a Base in pre­mar­ket. The expec­ta­tion is for a H4 DBD to form ie. today’s ses­sion will trade and close low­er. Although with­in the 4‑hour for­ma­tion of the can­dle there can be an expan­sion ie. mak­ing a LL fol­lowed by a con­trac­tion ie. pull­back, fol­lowed by anoth­er expan­sion till the close. This lat­ter I will get to in a T2 post of missed trade review lat­er on. 

Price had opened above val­ue and pro­ceed­ed to accept val­ue in A (tra­vers­ing 0.93xASR dur­ing IB indi­cat­ing respon­sive activ­i­ty). With trend being up 2/3, open sen­ti­ment, LTF demand at VAL, as well as DAX being equi­ties the bias was for a reac­tion high­er. There was also a near­by W1 demand. 

I kin­da expect­ed a Failed Auc­tion to be form­ing but when I noticed price had just test­ed IB low and start­ed react­ing I was late to the par­ty. I hoped for a pull­back to catch an entry long but due to price trad­ing high­er I could not find an entry that would fit my max SL placement. 

Click to Enlarge

What hypo was it?

Hypo 1

Return to Val­ue, Strength from with­in IBR to go Long

Nailed it on the Hypo

Click to Enlarge

What would have been the Entry?

Trade 1

DTTZ: 1st

Entry Method: M5 Bull Engulf formed on a test of IB low dur­ing C TPO. 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1

SL place­ment: about stan­dard SL siz­ing, slight­ly tighter

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1

Prof­it tar­get: 2+R

Click to Enlarge

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 2R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 2R tar­get was reached, if not tak­en then it would have closed at scratch 0R

TAGS: Trend is UP 2/3, Above Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbalance, 

Extra Obser­va­tions

The next review (Missed Trade DAX T2) will incor­po­rate the the­sis out­lined above in fur­ther detail. 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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